In 15 years: Nigeria could collapse, destabilize entire West Africa - U.S. intelligence analysts claim; Obasanjo calls them "prophets of doom...."
USAfrica The Newspaper, Houston,
CLASS
magazine
USAfricaonline.com
and The
Black Business Journal
A coup in Nigeria could cause the oil exporting country to
collapse and bring down much of West Africa w
ith
it, the U.S. National Intelligence Council said in a long-term
outlook released in Nigeria on Wednesday, May 25, 2005. The
catastrophic scenario was listed as a possible risk in a long-term
forecast for Africa by the U.S. government intelligence body, which
also saw most of the continent becoming increasingly marginalised
over the next 15 years.
"While Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all
dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could
disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja," said the report, which
was given to the press by Nigerian lawmakers. "The most important
would be a junior officer coup that could destabilise the country to
the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained
manner.
"If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region." The report said the collapse of Nigeria was a "downside risk", meaning it was considered a possible scenario rather than a probable one.
Nigeria's president Olusegun Obasanjo, a retired army general, in a written response to the report dated May 17, said people who talked of Nigeria as a failed state were living in the past, and called on Nigerians to disprove the "prophets of doom". "If our detractors cannot see our far-reaching reforms, our fight against waste and corruption, the new culture of service delivery that is gradually emerging, the various political reforms... then they must have some dubious or diabolical benchmarks for measuring efforts," Obasanjo wrote.
More than 20,000 people have been killed in religious, ethnic and communal violence in Nigeria since the restoration of democracy five years ago, which ended 15 years of military dictatorship.
UNITY
Africa's most populous nation of 140 million people is divided roughly equally between Christians and Muslims and is home to more than 250 different ethnic groups. Many have a lukewarm allegiance to national unity while some militant ethnic groups call for outright secession. However, many Nigerians still have painful memories of the 1967-1970 civil war, when the southeast tried to secede, killing about one million people. "A failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years -- if ever -- and not without massive international assistance," the report said.
Since his re-election in 2003 in polls which saw widespread rigging, Obasanjo has embarked on a radical economic reform agenda which has raised the cost of many basic goods, but brought the country's finances onto a more stable footing. Obasanjo's popularity has slumped as people's high expectations have come up against persistent mass unemployment, lawlessness, poverty and rampant corruption. He has no clear successor in elections due in 2007.
MARGINALISED
The council report also predicted that "most of Africa will become increasingly marginalised as many states struggle to overcome sub-par economic performance, weak state structures and poor governance". South Africa, oil producing states and a handful of other African countries committed to governance reforms have the best chance of attracting the investment required to compete and survive, it added. The group saw the level of violence in Africa as "unlikely to change appreciably in the next 15 years".
On a positive note, the report said Africa was unlikely to become a major supplier of "international terrorists" due to profound differences between Islam practised in Africa and in the Middle East. It said most African countries would continue to preach democracy, although commitment to democracy would remain "mile wide and inch thick".
Former colonial powers such as France and Britain would probably "continue to disengage gradually from Africa", it said, while newer actors, especially China, would play a larger role. Possible upsides included the potential for better use of oil revenues, technological advances in agriculture and new ways to fight diseases including AIDS and malaria. Reuters report from Camillus Eboh
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source
for an engaging understanding of African pre-colonial,
colonial and post-colonial history and realities. I believe
that such insight has made him a favorite of
African-Americans, and other scholars and regular folks in
search of a better, realistic understanding of Africa, at
least, from Achebe's utilization of his rich and dynamic
Igbo ancestry, in south eastern Nigeria. I share the same
ancestry, and he's one of 
USAfricaonline.com
Founder Chido Nwangwu with the U.S. former Ambassador
Carrington (right) at the U.S. embassy in Lagos during a
courtesy visit.
Obasanjo: "Let me say this to you, when you put the question
of 10,000 -- 10,000 people dying in Nigeria, of course, for
a population of over 120 million people...."
But USAfricaonline.com Founder and
recipient of the Journalism Excellence award (1997),