Brent crude is currently trading at $92.28 a barrel, according to an early Wednesday, September 13 (5:36 AM, GMT+1) survey of the market on Oil Price.
However, the Nigeria hasn’t been able to considerably enhance its oil production.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported an oil production of 1.4 million barrels per day in August.
The output falls to 1,181,133 barrels per day when condensate production is taken out of the equation.
When compared to Nigeria’s large oil reserves, which are believed to be 38 billion barrels, this amount appears relatively meager.
A contrary viewpoint was provided by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) most recent Monthly Oil Market Report, which stated that Nigeria produced only 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil, excluding condensates.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has fluctuated significantly since the year 2023 began, reaching a peak of 1,292,240 barrels per day in February and a low of 1,004,392 barrels per day in April.
Condensates output ranges from its highest position of 1,534,654 barrels per day in March to its lowest point of 1,252,114 barrels per day in April when the data from January to August 2023 are included.
These numbers clearly show that Nigeria has not yet reached its budget goal of 1.69 million barrels per day for 2023.
As noted in the OPEC report, the non-oil sector, in contrast, has seen a significant recovery. During the second quarter of 2023, this recovery is marked by a considerable increase in the output of services, manufacturing, and agriculture.
However, economy is still struggling with excessive inflation. Following increases of 22.8% in June and 22.4% in May, inflation rates rose again in July, reaching an annual rate of 24.1% year over year.
Nigeria’s oil industry is underfunded, and players are currently fighting crude oil theft. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has recently reported weekly cases of crude oil theft throughout the Niger Delta oil-producing regions.
According to the nation’s National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, security officials are combating the issue by destroying the vessels and other materials used in the illegal trade, but the theft business keeps becoming stronger, resulting in the loss of 400,000 barrels of oil per day.
According to the OPEC report, among the top four oil-producing countries in Africa, Nigeria (1.18 million barrels per day) continues to produce more than Angola (1.12 million) and Algeria (939,000). As of August 2023, though, it was behind Libya (1.19 million).
According to the OPEC report, among the top four oil-producing countries in Africa, Nigeria (1.18 million barrels per day) continues to produce more than Angola (1.12 million) and Algeria (939,000). As of August 2023, though, it was behind Libya (1.19 million).
Gobal demand for oil
The 2023 global oil demand growth prediction of 2.4 mb/d is unchanged, according to the OPEC report. The OECD region’s oil demand is expected to rise by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, according to OPEC.
They anticipate an increase in oil demand of about 2.3 mb/d in the non-OECD region. The estimate for the world oil demand growth through 2024 is strong at 2.2 mb/d, echoing the evaluation from the previous month.
Global oil production
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth prediction for 2023 has been marginally raised to 1.6 mb/d, per the OPEC report.
The US, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and China are the main sources of this increase in liquid supplies for 2023. The estimate for non-OPEC liquids output in 2024 is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast, coming in at 1.4 mb/d.
The United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan are anticipated to be the principal contributors to the growth of the liquid supply in 2024.
Secondary sources indicate that OPEC-13 crude oil output increased by 113 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) from one month to the next in August, rising to an average of 27.45 mb/d.
Recently, worries about potential supply limitations in the oil market have surfaced. These worries mostly result from Saudi Arabia and Russia’s current production restrictions, which have been prolonged to the end of the year.
The recent coup in Gabon, China’s economic slowdown, Storm Daniel in Libya, which has forced the closure of oil facilities, and the recent coup in Gabon may also be contributing factors to these supply concerns.
In the upcoming months, these factors will need to be closely watched and analyzed since they together form a complex environment for oil supply dynamics.
