An uptick in violent incidents linked to jihadist groups in northeastern Nigeria has reignited concerns over a possible resurgence of Boko Haram and its splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Security analysts warn that these groups are now deploying more advanced tactics, including the use of armed drones and roadside improvised explosive devices (IEDs), marking a significant escalation in their operational capabilities.
Recent attacks over the weekend in Adamawa and Borno states claimed at least 22 lives, while another 26 people were killed on Monday when an explosive device detonated under two vehicles in Borno. These are the latest in a series of deadly assaults that have resulted in dozens of deaths since the beginning of the year.
Borno state, the epicenter of the insurgency for over 15 years, continues to bear the brunt of the violence. Governor Babagana Zulum recently raised the alarm, warning that insurgents are regaining territory with insufficient resistance from government forces.
Security specialists attribute the resurgence to a temporary ceasefire in hostilities between Boko Haram and ISWAP, as well as the militants’ embrace of modern warfare techniques.
“Both groups have become a bit bolder and showed they have some sophisticated technology,” noted James Barnett, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute who conducts fieldwork focused on insecurity in Nigeria.
Analysts further believe that ISWAP’s deployment of armed drones may be linked to increased financial and logistical support from the broader Islamic State network. In one particularly alarming incident last month, insurgents launched a drone attack on a Nigerian military outpost near the Cameroonian border, reportedly killing several soldiers.
Vincent Foucher, a research fellow at the French National Centre for Scientific Research and an expert on extremist groups in West Africa, cited credible reports suggesting the involvement of external Islamic State advisors in assisting ISWAP operatives.
“They can improve the tactics and we have seen the use of drones and explosives and large-scale attacks. This could be taken as impact of the advice from the Islamic State,” Foucher said.
Since their split in 2016, Boko Haram and ISWAP have been engaged in a bitter rivalry. However, Foucher observed a shift in dynamics: “They are less busy fighting each other and have more time to carry out attacks.”
Governor Zulum also expressed concern last Friday that insurgents were regrouping in key strongholds such as the Lake Chad basin and the Sambisa Forest near the Cameroonian border.
The Nigerian military has yet to issue a formal response to these developments.
Malik Samuel, a senior researcher at the policy institute Good Governance Africa, highlighted the militants’ adaptability and strategic evolution over time. “Their current resurgence mirrors previous periods when they took the fight to the military, instead of waiting for the military to attack before repelling them,” he explained.
