A recent report by a Nigerian intelligence consultancy has revealed that a controversial stay-at-home directive enforced by the outlawed separatist group, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), has been linked to the deaths of over 700 individuals in the country’s southeastern region over a four-year span.
The IPOB, which advocates for the secession of southeastern Nigeria—a region predominantly inhabited by the Igbo ethnic group—has been designated a terrorist organisation by the Nigerian government.
According to the report released by SBM Intelligence, the fatalities primarily stem from the killing of civilians who ignored the group’s stay-at-home order, enforced every Monday and on selected dates, as well as from violent encounters between IPOB members and security operatives.
“IPOB’s enforcement tactics, including arson, looting and targeted assassinations, have created a climate of fear,” the SBM report said.
The report also highlighted the changing dynamics of public sentiment.
“While there was a high rate of compliance with sit-at-home orders in 2021 (82.61%), surveys reveal that actual support is much lower (29%) now, with many complying under duress.”
In response to the findings, a spokesperson for IPOB denied any involvement in the killings.
“Those causing the killings are the kidnappers and criminals recruited by government to blackmail and demonize IPOB,” the spokesperson said.
Nigerian authorities have yet to issue an official response to the report.
The sit-at-home initiative began in August 2021 as part of IPOB’s efforts to demand the release of its detained leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who is currently standing trial in Abuja on terrorism-related charges. Although IPOB later suspended the weekly protests, citing a “direct order” from Kanu, they reinstated the directive on specific days when their leader is scheduled to appear in court.
Despite the suspension, several armed factions claiming loyalty to IPOB have continued to enforce the order, often using violence against government institutions and perceived loyalists of the state. Law enforcement agencies have repeatedly blamed IPOB for a range of violent acts, including a high-profile prison attack in 2021 and the recent murder of over 30 travellers.
The group has denied any involvement in those incidents.
Beyond the human toll, the economic ramifications of the sit-at-home order have been severe. SBM Intelligence estimates that the directive observed every Monday and on court dates for Kanu, has cost the region over 7.6 trillion naira (approximately $4.79 billion) in lost productivity and economic activities.
This unrest draws historical parallels to the Biafran civil war of the late 1960s, during which over one million lives were lost in the region’s attempt to break away from Nigeria.
