Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO) has removed its Mali-based Loulo-Gounkoto complex from its 2025 production guidance, according to four sources familiar with the matter. The decision reflects escalating tensions in a prolonged two-year standoff over new mining legislation introduced by Mali’s military-led government to increase state revenues.
The Loulo-Gounkoto operation, one of Barrick’s largest gold-producing assets in Africa, has been inactive since January. This follows the Malian government’s decision to halt gold exports from the site, detain company personnel, and seize three metric tons of gold amid drawn-out negotiations over a revised mining agreement.
At the center of the dispute lies a high-stakes opportunity: with gold prices at historic highs, both parties stand to gain—or lose—revenues exceeding $1 billion this year. Mali’s hardline stance could deter future foreign investment, while Barrick’s share performance continues to trail that of its industry counterparts.
The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, indicated that the company has excluded the complex from its global production forecast for next year.
Spokespersons for both Barrick and Mali’s Ministry of Mines did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
Although Barrick has not publicly disclosed its output estimates for Mali, Morningstar analysts previously projected that the country would contribute approximately 250,000 ounces to its 2025 output.
In a recent move that could see the Canadian miner lose operational control, Mali’s government petitioned a local court in May to install a provisional administrator to reopen the complex. According to Jefferies, the mines accounted for 14% of Barrick’s total output. A court hearing on this application is scheduled for Thursday.
Parallel to legal proceedings, negotiations are continuing. As part of those discussions, Mali has reportedly offered a significant concession: the government will permit Barrick to repatriate 20% of its earnings into an international bank account—an exception not granted to other foreign mining companies that renegotiated contracts with the state, two informed individuals said.
However, a key sticking point remains. Malian authorities want any future disputes to be resolved exclusively in local courts. Barrick, on the other hand, insists that any new agreement should be governed by an international treaty, with disputes handled via international arbitration, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter.
Despite the company’s broader resilience driven by strong gold prices, investors remain concerned about the implications of a provisional administrator taking control of the mines. One source noted that even if Barrick later regains operational oversight, the delay could result in the depletion of valuable reserves.
In December, Barrick initiated international arbitration proceedings against Mali. The company followed up in May with a request to the World Bank’s arbitration tribunal to suspend court proceedings in Bamako regarding the provisional administration. However, according to two people close to the case, the tribunal denied that request.
The president of the arbitration panel declined to comment on the matter.
The Loulo-Gounkoto operations contributed approximately $949 million to Barrick’s revenues during the first nine months of 2024. According to Jefferies, if the site remains non-operational, the company could see a reduction of up to 11% in its 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA).
Mali, which ranks as Africa’s third-largest gold producer, has seen increasing tensions with foreign miners since the military seized power in successive coups in 2020 and 2021. Government officials argue that the existing agreement with Barrick is inequitable and have negotiated revised terms with other multinational mining firms. During one such negotiation last year, the chief executive of Australian miner Resolute was detained for over a week.
