The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cautioned that the world could face a significant oil supply shortfall of up to 23 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 if current levels of upstream investment fail to meet projected demand. The group estimates that $17.4 trillion in cumulative oil-related investments will be required by 2050 to support the global energy system.
OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, made the remarks on Tuesday during the 24th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week Conference and Exhibition in Abuja.
According to Al Ghais, the energy sector must undergo sustained, large-scale investment to ensure that future energy needs are met, especially as global consumption continues to rise.
“The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says its research estimates a huge oil market deficit of 23 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, if investment in the global upstream industry stops.
OPEC also said that global cumulative oil-related investments of 17.4 trillion dollars are required by 2050 to meet the energy demand,” he stated.
He further emphasized that global energy demand is expected to increase by 23% between now and 2050, citing factors such as population growth, rapid urbanisation, and expanding economic activities.
Additional Insights
Al Ghais highlighted that the global population is projected to grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, with an estimated 1.9 billion people moving to urban areas. This demographic shift will place greater pressure on energy infrastructure while offering an opportunity to expand access to energy services.
OPEC data reveals that approximately 675 million people still lack access to electricity, while 2.3 billion are without clean cooking fuels. Despite global efforts to transition to cleaner energy, OPEC maintains that hydrocarbons will continue to play a vital role in tackling energy poverty and meeting rising demand.
The organization projects that oil will remain the dominant fuel in the global energy mix, accounting for nearly 30% of total energy demand by 2050. Combined, oil and natural gas are expected to supply over half of the world’s energy needs.
Al Ghais also underscored the necessity for developing nations to harness their natural resources to drive economic growth, adding that innovation is improving the efficiency and environmental sustainability of the oil and gas sector.
Nigerian Context
In May 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed an Executive Order introducing performance-based tax incentives for upstream oil operators that meet annual cost-efficiency benchmarks set by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The policy is designed to reduce operational costs and attract more investment to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
Meanwhile, Presidential Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, has warned that unless African nations adopt competitive and transparent investment policies, they risk missing out on vital upstream capital. She noted that oil investment in Africa is expected to fall sharply—from $340 billion between 2011 and 2015 to under $130 billion between 2026 and 2030.
This concern aligns with OPEC’s broader call for a renewed global commitment to investment in energy infrastructure, particularly in regions vulnerable to supply shocks and underinvestment.
