In an unprecedented development, Nigeria has, for the first time, imported more crude oil from the United States than it exported. This significant reversal in trade flow, which occurred in February and March 2025, reflects the evolving dynamics of Nigeria’s oil refining capacity and shifting demand patterns in global energy markets.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) attributes this change to a combination of increased domestic crude demand—particularly from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery—and reduced U.S. imports due to temporary operational setbacks on the East Coast.
Commissioned in January 2024, the Dangote Refinery—situated near Lagos—is now central to Nigeria’s energy strategy. Designed to reach a peak capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) by the end of 2025, it is the world’s largest single-train refining facility. Its emergence marks a deliberate push by Nigeria to limit its dependence on imported refined petroleum products.
Trade Reversal by the Numbers
According to the EIA:
- U.S. crude exports to Nigeria surged to 111,000 b/d in February and rose further to 169,000 b/d in March.
- By contrast, U.S. crude imports from Nigeria fell to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March—down significantly from 133,000 b/d recorded in January.
This shift was exacerbated by maintenance activities at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, which temporarily reduced U.S. appetite for imported crude. Later in the year, however, imports of Nigerian crude resumed as Bayway resumed operations and the Dangote Refinery encountered unplanned downtime.
“The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year,” said Giovanni Staunovo, energy analyst at UBS.
“Going forward… it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist.”
Dangote Refinery: Fueling Domestic Demand and Challenging Global Norms
Speaking at the West African Refined Fuel Conference in Abuja, Aliko Dangote, President/CEO of the Dangote Group, disclosed that the refinery sources between 9–10 million barrels of crude monthly from a mix of U.S. and other international suppliers.
He highlighted a notable irony in the trade structure, revealing that some of the crude oil acquired originates from Nigerian oil sold at a premium to international traders—only to be repurchased by his refinery.
“We produce plenty of crude, but we still import over 120 million tonnes of refined products annually,” Dangote stated.
“That’s a $90 billion market opportunity captured by countries with surplus refining capacity, while we export jobs and import poverty.”
Dangote also criticized the substandard quality of fuels often exported to African markets, advocating for robust local refining, improved product standards, and regional energy self-sufficiency.
Key Insights and Industry Reactions
- Eli Tesfaye of RJO Futures believes the recent trade pattern is more reflective of short-term market disruptions than a long-lasting trend.
- Nonetheless, the development highlights how investment in domestic refining infrastructure can dramatically reshape global petroleum trade.
- Aliko Dangote concluded his remarks by expressing strong support for free-market principles and calling for trade policies grounded in efficiency, comparative advantage, and consistent quality control.
This milestone in Nigeria-U.S. crude trade serves as a reminder of how infrastructure, policy, and strategic investments can influence the direction of global energy flows—even reversing decades-long norms.
