Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform international trade, with projections showing it could boost global cross-border trade by up to 40% by the year 2040. However, experts warn that this growth will only materialize if countries adopt the right policy frameworks to bridge existing digital divides and ensure equitable access to AI technologies.
The findings come from the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 2025 World Trade Report, which underscores both the immense opportunities and significant risks associated with the rapid integration of AI into the global economy. According to the report, widespread adoption of AI could expand global trade by 34–37% and increase global GDP by 12–13% by 2040. But these benefits will depend heavily on ensuring access to AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors, raw materials, and digital infrastructure—sectors that together accounted for $2.3 trillion in trade in 2023.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the uneven distribution of AI access across the globe.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she stated.
The report shows that low- and middle-income economies could see transformative gains if they close half of their digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies. Specifically, low-income countries could boost incomes by 15%, while middle-income nations could record 14% growth. This highlights the urgent need for policies that encourage investments in digital infrastructure, workforce upskilling, and inclusive participation in the AI-driven global economy.
The report also raises concerns about the growing number of restrictions on AI-related goods. Quantitative restrictions have surged dramatically, increasing from just 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, primarily imposed by high- and upper-middle-income economies. In some low-income countries, bound tariffs on AI-enabling products remain as high as 45%, placing them at a significant disadvantage and curbing competitiveness in global trade.
To prevent inequality from widening, the WTO stresses the importance of comprehensive policies. Beyond infrastructure, governments are urged to invest in education, workforce training, and labor market reforms that prepare populations for an AI-driven economy. The report further recommends more open and predictable trade policies, coupled with expanded commitments under existing WTO agreements such as the Information Technology Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). These measures would lower costs, enhance affordability, and encourage broader participation in AI-enabled trade.
The WTO also noted that it will continue to serve as a global platform for dialogue on AI and trade. More than 80 trade-related concerns connected to AI have already been raised by member countries, and discussions remain active under the WTO Work Programme on E-Commerce.
For Nigeria, the WTO’s projections highlight both a major opportunity and a pressing challenge. Nigeria launched its National AI Strategy earlier in 2025, aiming to accelerate adoption across sectors to boost productivity and economic growth. However, industry analysts argue that without addressing the country’s chronic infrastructure gaps, including inadequate broadband penetration, unreliable electricity supply, and limited investment in research and development, the strategy risks falling short of its ambitious targets.
Nigeria’s ability to compete in the AI-driven global economy will depend on whether it can strengthen its digital infrastructure, train a workforce equipped with AI-related skills, and adopt policies that attract foreign investment in AI technology. The challenge lies in balancing rapid adoption with inclusivity, ensuring that the benefits of AI extend beyond major cities and reach rural communities.
Ultimately, the WTO’s report serves as both a warning and a roadmap: while AI could revolutionize trade and growth worldwide, the true extent of its impact will be determined by the ability of governments, Nigeria included, to ensure equitable access, reduce barriers, and invest in the people who will drive the digital economy forward.
