A two-month fuel blockade imposed by al-Qaeda-linked militants has brought Mali’s capital, Bamako, to a near standstill, deepening the economic and humanitarian crisis and raising fears that jihadists could soon tighten their grip on the West African nation.
Security experts say the militant coalition Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has operated within 50 kilometers (30 miles) of Bamako for months, currently lacks the strength or intent to capture the city of four million. However, its strategy of starving the capital of fuel, crippling transportation, closing schools, and cutting diesel power to businesses represents the most severe threat yet to Mali’s junta, which came to power in a 2021 coup.
Analysts and diplomats told Reuters that JNIM’s blockade appears designed to sow chaos and trigger another coup, Mali’s third since 2020, potentially weakening the state and creating new opportunities for the group to consolidate territory, resources, and influence.
A recent client note from risk consultancy Control Risks warned that “with JNIM’s activity putting unprecedented pressure on the government, the risk of a regime collapse, whether through a coup or another political crisis, will be very high over the coming weeks.”
The jihadist group has not commented on its current strategy, but in a September statement announcing the blockade, JNIM declared its target was “these bandits who are in power,” accusing the junta of “persecuting Malians, especially outside the capital.” Mali’s Ministry of Communication has yet to respond to requests for comment.
Escalating Insurgency Amid Strategic Failures
Originating from a 2012 Tuareg rebellion, JNIM has steadily expanded from northern Mali into central regions and into neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Interim leader Assimi Goïta seized power, promising to reverse jihadist gains. But his decision to cut military ties with France and the United States while pivoting toward Russia has largely failed to stem the violence.
JNIM has intensified its attacks this year, claiming to have killed hundreds of soldiers and looted vast quantities of weapons. It recently secured a $50 million ransom for two Emirati hostages and has advanced into southern and western Mali, extending control over routes supplying Bamako and enforcing its blockade by striking fuel convoys from Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal.
“The fuel blockade is more than an act of economic warfare; it is also a terrorist tactic,” said Justyna Gudzowska, executive director of The Sentry, an investigative research group. “It instills fear among Bamako’s ruling elite and the general population, creating the perception that the capital is under siege and that JNIM is closing in.”
A collapse in Mali’s stability would have sweeping regional consequences, potentially destabilizing the military-led governments of Burkina Faso and Niger, which have formed a political and defense alliance with Bamako. “If Mali collapses, everything collapses,” a senior diplomat in Bamako warned. “If the current balance of power collapses, the alliance of the Sahel states collapses.”
Fear, Repression, and Internal Fractures
In Bamako, residents are growing anxious but cautious. Few are willing to speak publicly for fear of government reprisals.
“It’s been complicated these past weeks,” said Abdoulaye, a ride-hailing driver who asked to be identified by first name only. “My brother now waits in line all night just to buy a few liters of fuel.”
Though protests have not yet erupted, speculation of divisions within the military leadership continues to swirl. In August, authorities arrested two generals and several officers accused of plotting to destabilize the government, a move analysts say reflects deep unease within the junta.
“I don’t think the regime is strong enough to hold onto power indefinitely,” said one West African security analyst. “There are too many pressures, political, economic, and from armed groups, converging all at once.”
Islamist Control Expands Beyond the Capital
Beyond Bamako, JNIM has imposed strict social and religious codes in territories under its control, including decrees restricting travel and mandating that all women wear the hijab on public transport.
“What JNIM’s rule would look like if it seized control of Bamako’s institutions is difficult to predict,” Gudzowska said. “But its brief occupations of towns elsewhere in Mali have been marked by harsh restrictions, extrajudicial executions, and severe limits on education.”
Foreign embassies, including those of the United States, Britain, and Italy, have advised their citizens to leave Mali as security conditions worsen.
So far, there has been no mass exodus or visible impact on air travel, though observers caution that the situation remains fluid. “No scenario at this point can be excluded,” the diplomat in Bamako said. “We cannot rule out the possibility that JNIM might try to enter the city.”
