Umaro Sissoco Embalo is seeking re-election this month, aiming to become the first incumbent president to secure a second term in Guinea-Bissau in three decades. However, his tenure has been marked by instability and repeated challenges to his authority.
Since assuming office in 2020, Embalo’s government has faced multiple attempts to remove him, including a 2022 coup attempt during which gunfire erupted near the compound where he was holding a cabinet meeting.
The West African nation’s illicit cocaine trade appears to be thriving. A recent report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime described it as “arguably more profitable than at any point in the country’s history.” Meanwhile, the 53-year-old former army general has repeatedly confronted questions about the legitimacy of his leadership, with critics claiming he did not legitimately win the 2019 election and that he has overstayed his constitutional mandate.
Despite these challenges, Embalo remains well-positioned for a second term as Guinea-Bissau’s approximately 2 million voters prepare for the November 23 presidential and legislative elections.
Opponent Barred from Running
Embalo’s prospects are bolstered by the disqualification of his main challenger, former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira. However, analysts caution that winning the election may not translate into effective governance.
“Embalo has put a lot of effort into hardware, public works and so on. The situation seems to have improved in terms of electricity,” said Vincent Foucher, senior research fellow at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research. “But running an efficient state is not just about hardware. It’s about governing.”
A Turbulent Political Rise
Embalo previously served as a presidential adviser and minister before being appointed prime minister by President Jose Mario Vaz in 2016. He was sacked after just over a year, one of seven prime ministers Vaz cycled through.
Embalo and Pereira faced off in a 2019 presidential run-off, which Embalo won with 54% of the vote. Yet, stability remained elusive. Pereira contested the result, and a 2022 coup attempt, followed by violent clashes in the capital, prompted Embalo to dissolve parliament, leaving the country without a functioning legislature. Last month, the army announced another coup attempt, resulting in the detention of senior officers.
Cocaine Trade and Economic Prospects
Amid political unrest, Guinea-Bissau’s role as a transit hub for cocaine shipments from South America to Europe has persisted. In September 2024, authorities seized 2.63 tons of cocaine from a plane arriving from Venezuela.
“The cocaine market is booming once again, and has arguably become more profitable than at any point in the country’s history,” the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime noted in August.
Economically, Guinea-Bissau’s GDP is projected to grow 5.1% this year, according to the IMF. Embalo has highlighted the country’s mineral resources, including bauxite and phosphate. U.S. energy company Chevron recently signed a deal to explore two offshore blocks, which Embalo described as a potential catalyst for transformation: “Now that stability has been achieved, all these projects can begin,” he told Jeune Afrique.
While Embalo seeks to leverage economic growth to strengthen his legacy, he faces the enduring challenges of political instability and entrenched criminal networks as he pursues a historic second term.
