LAGOS, Nigeria — The Dangote Group has announced a new strategic partnership with U.S.-based Honeywell International Inc. to support the next phase of expansion of its 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) petroleum refinery, a move that could more than double the facility’s capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2028.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, Dangote said the collaboration would provide advanced process technologies and equipment that will enable the refinery to handle a wider range of crude types and boost output quality and operational efficiency.
“The collaboration will provide advanced technology and services that will enable the refinery to increase its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, marking a major milestone in our long-term vision to build the world’s largest petroleum refining complex,” the company said.
Under the new agreement, Honeywell will supply specialised catalysts, industrial systems, and process solutions designed to enhance the refinery’s flexibility and reliability. Honeywell, a Fortune 100 industrial and technology company, operates across aviation, automotive, industrial automation, and advanced materials sectors.
Its refining technology division, UOP, has worked with Dangote since 2017, providing proprietary refining systems, catalyst regeneration equipment, high-performance column trays, and heat exchanger technologies that support the refinery’s “best-in-class operations,” according to the statement.
Although financial details of the new partnership were not disclosed, Dangote said the move aligns with its plan to add a new single-train refining unit to meet Nigeria’s growing fuel demand and export surplus production to international markets.
Dangote Expands Petrochemical and Fertiliser Operations
Dangote Group also announced that it is advancing its petrochemical expansion, including a plan to scale polypropylene production to 2.4 million metric tons annually using Honeywell’s Oleflex technology.
Polypropylene is a key raw material used in packaging, automotive components, and industrial manufacturing.
In addition, the company revealed that it is pursuing the next phase of its fertiliser growth plan, which will triple its annual urea production capacity from 3 million to 9 million metric tons.
“We will increase our urea production capacity from three million metric tons to nine million metric tons annually. The existing plant consists of two trains of 1.5 million metric tons each. The expansion will add four additional trains to meet growing demand for high-quality fertiliser across Africa and global markets.
Dangote Group remains fully committed to delivering world-class industrial capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s energy security, and driving sustainable economic growth through long-term investment, innovation, and strategic global partnerships,” the statement added.
Global Oil Prices Projected to Fall — JP Morgan
Meanwhile, global investment bank JP Morgan has warned that oil prices could fall to their lowest levels in two decades outside the pandemic period, predicting that Brent crude—Nigeria’s benchmark—could average $42 per barrel by 2027 amid a potential oversupply from OPEC producers.
The bank said that without intervention, prices could “slide into the $30s by year-end,” adding that this would mark the weakest price level since 2004, excluding the pandemic crash.
Brent crude has already declined from $82 per barrel in January to about $62 on Tuesday, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members increased production to protect market share, while demand from China has slowed due to the country’s rapid shift toward electric vehicles.
JP Morgan forecasts that global oil surpluses will rise to 2.8 million barrels per day next year, up from 1.5 million bpd this year.
“Under these conditions, Brent prices are likely to slip below $60 in 2026, drop into the low $50s by the final quarter, and close the year with a $4 handle,” analysts wrote.
“The outlook worsens in 2027, as mounting surpluses drive Brent to an average $42, with prices sliding into the $30s by year-end.”
Other financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank and Macquarie, also forecast Brent crude to fall to the mid-$50 range by the end of 2025.
Analysts said falling oil prices would offer relief to global consumers through lower fuel and transport costs, though the extent of the benefit would depend on how quickly savings are passed on to end users.
“A fall would be a huge boost to the finances of families with cars and, more importantly, the cost of haulage,” said Luke Bosdet of the AA. “That would have a big impact on prices to customers, which should be passed on to consumers. The net result should be a significant fall in inflation. But, with global events and economic volatility, I’ll believe it when I see it.”
IEA: Global Oil Supply Hits Record Levels
In its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil supply had increased by a “massive 6.2 million barrels per day” since January, with stockpiles growing by 77.7 million barrels in September alone, reaching their highest level since mid-2021.
However, the agency warned that future output could be affected by ongoing trade disruptions, the U.S. federal government shutdown, and Western sanctions on Russia’s major producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.
“Saudi Arabia boosted supply by close to 1.5 million bpd from January through October, in line with its higher quota,” the IEA said. “By contrast, Russian production is up by only 120,000 bpd over the same period, with growth stymied by sanctions and a challenging operating environment.”
The report added that while crude output is rising, global demand is expected to ease in the final quarter of the year, creating what it described as “increasingly skewed market balances.”
