Four years after seizing power in a military coup, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya is positioning himself to transform from soldier to statesman. The Guinean leader, who once vowed not to run for office, now stands as the frontrunner in the December 28 presidential election, a contest widely viewed as a formality designed to legitimize his continued rule.
The former special forces commander, believed to be in his early forties, rose to prominence after overthrowing President Alpha Condé in September 2021, ending months of protests sparked by Condé’s bid for a controversial third term. Doumbouya’s coup initially drew popular support from citizens weary of political unrest, and since then, he has used that goodwill to consolidate power through a blend of economic reforms, security stability, and populist nationalism.
According to risk consultancy Signal Risk, Guinea, unlike its coup-hit Sahelian neighbours, has remained relatively stable under Doumbouya’s leadership, attracting foreign investment and launching ambitious projects aimed at reshaping its mineral-dependent economy.
Bauxite, Iron Ore, and Power
Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and one of its richest untapped iron ore deposits at Simandou, where a major mining project was launched in November. Doumbouya has sought to bring the mining sector firmly under state control, revoking or renegotiating foreign concessions to ensure greater national benefit.
His government cancelled Guinea Alumina Corporation’s license, a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium, in July following a dispute over refinery operations, transferring the company’s assets to a state-owned enterprise.
Observers say Doumbouya’s assertive resource nationalism reflects a desire to distinguish Guinea from its military-led neighbours while strengthening state revenues and tightening control over the country’s most lucrative industries.
Yet, as Benedict Manzin, lead Middle East and Africa analyst at Sibylline, notes, the strategy presents a diplomatic dilemma:
“Western powers face a dilemma: denouncing democratic backsliding could push Doumbouya closer to China and other rivals.”
A successful transition from junta leader to elected president, he added, could also embolden other military regimes in the region.
“Doumbouya … seized power, largely ignored (West African bloc) ECOWAS and domestic demands to rapidly transition back to civilian rule… (then) secured his own election… while the international community largely overlooked how he got to power in the first place,” Manzin said.
He described the situation as “a near Cinderella story for an aspiring military despot.”
A Calculated Path to Power
Born into the Malinke ethnic group in eastern Guinea’s Kankan region, Doumbouya received military training in Israel, Senegal, Gabon, and France, serving in the French Foreign Legion, where he met his wife, Lauriane Doumbouya, a French gendarme. His 15-year military career included deployments to Afghanistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, and the Central African Republic.
Doumbouya’s decision to run for president marks a sharp reversal from earlier promises. The post-coup charter initially barred junta members from contesting elections, but a new constitution approved in a September referendum removed those restrictions.
His campaign has focused on infrastructure, poverty reduction, and anti-corruption, portraying him as a modernising reformer. Yet critics argue that his main objective is to entrench military dominance under a civilian façade.
“The mere fact that the transitional president is a candidate… clearly demonstrates that the objective is to retain power,” said Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank WATHI. “Nothing will prevent General Doumbouya and the military around him from holding on to power.”
Repression and Political Manipulation
Doumbouya’s record since taking office has drawn criticism from civil society groups and the opposition, who accuse his government of banning protests, restricting press freedom, and curbing political activity.
His administration has also been accused of manipulating the judiciary to weaken rivals. The Supreme Court, under reported government pressure, disqualified several opposition candidates, while former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, a leading opposition figure, remains in exile facing corruption charges.
Former President Alpha Condé, now 87, is also in exile after being barred from contesting under a new age limit of 85.
In a controversial move, Doumbouya pardoned former coup leader Moussa Dadis Camara, convicted for his role in the 2009 stadium massacre, a decision widely interpreted as a calculated bid to secure support in Guinée Forestière, one of the country’s most populous regions.
The Election Ahead
As Guinea approaches the December vote, many analysts see the outcome as a foregone conclusion — one that formalises Doumbouya’s authority rather than restores genuine democracy.
While his supporters view him as a strong leader bringing order and economic promise, critics warn that the election could entrench a pattern of militarised politics that has haunted West Africa for decades.
For now, Doumbouya’s challenge is to convince both citizens and the world that his rule marks a turning point, not merely a continuation of power by other means.
