Abdu Rafiu contributes the RAM column to USAfricaonline.com
Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet.
First, here are some reactions to recent articles in this column.
Reactions:
1). I thoroughly enjoyed this one on Artificial Intelligence (AI). I could feel that you’re, in fact, being conservative on the advancement of AI. You painted a picture of a reality within the scope of human deployment whereas the dangerous reality is that it’s already threatening to escape human control. Also, there are dark hints of it being controlled by alien forces. It’s a revolutionary development, no doubt, and I believe before it goes completely rogue on us, the Master of the Universe will step in.
2). This one on the Iran war touches on a rather troubling complexity. Without attempting to pass judgment on any party, I am of the humble opinion that the taking out of Iranian nuclear capacity is a divine postponement of precipitate apocalypse which the Iranian regime wanted to bring upon a world that is opposed to Islamist rule, tunnel vision or ideology. Whatever or whoever carries any blame, the crippling of the nuclear power is a service to the world. God bless you, Sir.
The preceding comments came from Patrick Edebor, CEO of Tallwalls Publishing, in Ibadan, Nigeria.
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Update on the U.S.-Israel War with Iran. Author of the enlightening piece, below, is not identified. His commentary was forwarded by Frank Onah, from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka:
Forty-eight hours! That is how long Iran gave Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), Kuwait, and Qatar to make a choice that will define the Middle East for the next 50 years. Not a negotiation, not a diplomatic consultation. An ultimatum delivered through back channels to every Gulf monarchy, simultaneously.
The message was identical to all of them: Simple, binary, and catastrophic, regardless of which option they chose. Stop allowing American military forces to use your territory for strikes against Iran. Shut down the bases, deny overflight permissions, end the logistical support, or accept that your oil infrastructure, the thing your entire economy is built on, the thing that keeps your population fed and your cities powered, becomes a permanent military target that Iran will destroy systematically until nothing remains. Forty-eight hours to choose between economic suicide and strategic abandonment. There is no middle ground, and the deadline is not negotiable. Iran made that clear. “We are not asking for your cooperation. We are informing you of the consequences of your choice. Choose America, and your oil fields burn. Choose your oil fields and America leaves.” Either way, the Gulf that existed two weeks ago, the one where monarchs balanced relations with both sides, where neutrality was possible, where wealth bought safety, that Gulf is gone and it is not coming back.
March 8, 2026, Iranian representatives delivered identical messages to Saudi’s Crown Prince, the UAE’s President, Kuwait’s emir, and Qatar’s leadership, not through official diplomatic channels, but through intelligence back channels that Gulf states maintain with Iran specifically for communications that cannot be public, the kind of channels you use when the message is too sensitive for formal diplomacy.
The message was direct: “Your territory is being used to launch attacks that kill Iranian civilians. American aircraft take off from your bases. American drones operate from your fields. American missiles transit your airspace. American logistics networks run through your ports. Every one of those operations makes you a combatant. And combatants pay the price in war. You have 48 hours to end American use of your territory. After 48 hours, if American operations continue from your soil, we will begin systematically to destroy oil production infrastructure. Not your military bases. Your oil fields, your refineries, your pipelines, your storage facilities, everything you need to extract, process, and export the resource your economy depends on. We will destroy it methodically, completely, and irreversibly, and there is nothing you can do to stop us.”
The Gulf monarchs received this message and immediately understood three things.
First, Iran is not bluffing. The last two weeks proved Iran can hit any target in the Gulf with precision. Saudi oil facilities have already been struck. Kuwait refineries have already been hit. The capability has been demonstrated.
Second, American defences cannot protect the Gulf oil infrastructure. There are too many targets, too spread out, and too vulnerable. One Saudi oil field, Ghawar, has over 800 oil wellheads dispersed across 280 square kilometres. You cannot put a Patriot battery on every wellhead. You cannot intercept every missile when 50 launch simultaneously at 50 different targets. The maths does not work.
Third, the 48-hour deadline is real. Iran is not keen or starting a negotiation. Iran is end none. The decision point is here, now. The delaying is itself a choice that Iran will interpret as choosing America.
Let us walk through what each option actually means. Because this is not a diplomatic puzzle where clever negotiation finds a middle path. This is a binary trap where both doors lead to disaster.
Option one: Choose America. Tell Iran that the Gulf states will not bow to ultimatums, that American alliance commitments matter, and that sovereignty means hosting whatever forces you choose. American bases stay. American operations continue. Iran follows through on its threat. Iranian missiles begin hitting Saudi oil fields. Aramco facilities that produce 10 million barrels per day start going offline. Not all at once. Systematically. One field per day, one refinery per week. A sustained campaign designed to reduce Saudi oil production from 10 million barrels per day to 5 million, then to 2 million, then functionally zero over the course of three months.
What does that do to Saudi Arabia? Oil revenue is 87 per cent of Saudi government income. When oil production drops 50 per cent, Saudi Arabia cannot pay public sector salaries, cannot subsidize food and fuel for its population, and cannot fund the social programmes that keep 60 per cent unemployed youth from revolting. The country that bought stability with oil wealth loses oil wealth. Instability follows. This is not hypothetical. It is arithmetic. And the Saudi government knows it.
The UAE faces the same calculation. Oil and gas revenue is 30 per cent of GDP. More importantly, it is the foundation of everything else. The real estate market that foreign investors poured money into collapses when the country is a war zone. The tourism sector that Dubai built? Gone when airlines will not fly into a city under missile attack. The financial services industry relocates to Singapore when the bombs start falling. The UAE does not just lose oil revenue; it loses everything oil revenue enabled. Kuwait and Qatar: same story, different numbers, same outcome. Destroy oil infrastructure means economic infrastructure collapses. An economic collapse in a rentier state means political collapse follows within months.
Option two: Choose the oil. Tell America that Gulf states can no longer host US military forces. Bases close, overflights are denied, and American personnel are given 30 days to leave. Iran stops targeting oil infrastructure. The oil keeps flowing. The economy survives. And America leaves permanently. Because once you eject American forces during a war, you do not get them back. The alliance is over, not paused. Over.
What does that mean strategically? It means the Gulf has no security guarantor. Iran becomes the regional hegemon by default. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, all of them, become Iranian client states. Not through conquest. Through simple reality that they cannot defend themselves, and the country that could defend them is gone. Iranian influence expands into every Gulf capital. Iranian preferences become gulf policy. The monarchies that spent 70 years balancing against Iranian power just handed Iran everything it wanted without Iran firing a shot at them.
And America? America loses the Middle East, not just a war, but the region. Sixty years of alliance infrastructure, strategic positioning, military access, all of it gone because Gulf states chose survival over alliance. The American military presence that has defined the region since 1945 ends, not because America was defeated militarily but because America’s allies concluded that American protection costs more than it provides.
Here is what makes this ultimatum strategically brilliant. The 48-hour deadline does not give the Gulf states time to negotiate. It does not give America time to deploy additional defences. It does not give anyone time to find a diplomatic exit. Forty-hours is just enough time to make the decision, not to escape it. Iran designed the timeline specifically to prevent the one thing Gulf states are experts at: delay and hedging.
Gulf monarchies have survived for decades by never fully committing to either side of regional rivalries. They maintain relations with America and Iran. They buy weapons from the West and maintain dialogue with Tehran. They host American bases and send delegates to Iranian leaders. The strategy worked because both sides tolerated it. The ultimatum forces a choice that cannot be delayed, cannot be hedged, cannot be managed through the usual diplomatic ambiguity, and the 48 hours create a countdown that puts pressure on everyone simultaneously.
Saudi Arabia cannot wait to see what the UAE decides because the deadline is the same for everyone. The UAE cannot coordinate with Kuwait because there is no time for multilateral strategy sessions. Each country has to make its own calculation in isolation, under timeline pressure with incomplete information. This is not diplomacy. This is coercion optimized for maximum effectiveness.
The deadline also prevents American intervention from changing the equation. Forty-eight hours is not enough time for the United States to deploy new defensive systems, negotiate security guarantees or restructure its regional military posture. America officials can make promises, but they cannot deliver capability of Gulf oil infrastructure in 48 hours. Iran made sure of that.
Let us talk about why American defences cannot protect Gulf oil infrastructure. This is not a question of American commitment or willingness. This is physics, geometry and target density. Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure: Ghawar oil field, the largest in the world, 280 square kilometres, over 800 individual wellheads; processing facilities at Abqaiq, the most important oil facility on earth, processes 7 million barrels per day. Ras Tanura export terminal loads, 6 million barrels per day onto tankers; Shaybah field, Saf Aniyah field, and Manifa field, each one covering hundreds of square kilometres with dozens of critical points of failure. You cannot defend that with missile interceptors. A Patriot battery covers a radius of approximately 20 kilometres.
Remarks:
The Gulf states are at a dangerous crossroads and whichever direction they may turn leads to a calamitous end. All is a manifestation of the spiritual state of our world. The earth is getting to a dangerous point encircled by rays emanating from the pressure of the Light which now has the world under its firm grip as a feature of the proverbial End-Time. Is it not a very sad irony that a Belt of blessed Regions into which great Figures were sent by Almighty God has been intermittently plunged into turmoil and chaos by puny human beings?
The Lord Jesus, the Prince of Peace and Son of God, was born in Israel, Sonship that means A Part of God: “The Father and I are One. I am in the Father and the Father is in me”, the Lord said. One of the Teachers of mankind, Zoroaster (600 B.C.) was born and he lived in Persia, now Iran. Jeremiah, (630 B.C.), the admonishing Prophet incarnated and worked in Palestine. Prophet Mohammed (Peace be unto him), the great bringer of Truth, was born in Arabia in 571 A.D. The Dark hour in the on-going purification of the earth and heading for a crescendo is earthly in consequence but spiritual in cause. The tipping point is still ahead as the Justice of the Lord is baring its fangs to obstinate and disobedient mankind.
Full discourse of the subject is deferred.
As Gen. Trump declared victory in an ongoing war. By Asiegbu Agwu Nkpa
