Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger’s decision to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a significant economic and political bloc in West Africa, marks a notable reversal of decades-long regional integration efforts. This departure not only places millions of individuals in a state of uncertainty but also has the potential to strengthen the ties between the three countries led by military juntas and Russia.
The process of withdrawal from the 15-member ECOWAS may require a considerable period for implementation, offering an opportunity for diplomatic negotiations. Nonetheless, if executed, the withdrawal stands poised to disrupt regional trade and service exchanges, valued at nearly $150 billion annually. Furthermore, it raises concerns regarding the fate of millions of citizens from the three nations, particularly those who have resettled in neighboring states under the visa-free travel and work provisions of the bloc.
Of particular note, Ivory Coast hosts over 5 million individuals from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Niger, sharing a 1,500-kilometer border with Nigeria, conducts 80% of its trade with its more affluent neighbor, as highlighted by Seidik Abba, president of the Paris-based CIRES think tank. Additionally, Ghana, Togo, and Benin accommodate significant diasporas from Niger, further emphasizing the potential ramifications of the withdrawal.
The departure decision carries substantial economic and political implications, as emphasized by analysts and African diplomats consulted by Reuters. The move underscores the prevailing unrest across the region, characterized by the challenges faced by military forces in containing Islamist militant activities since assuming power in several countries.
Simultaneously, Russia’s expanding influence, at the expense of traditional powers such as France, Nigeria, and the United States, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. Recent agreements between Russia and the junta-led Niger, as well as the presence of Russian military personnel in Burkina Faso and Mali, underscore this evolving geopolitical landscape.
The joint announcement of withdrawal by the three military-led countries cites ECOWAS’ alleged departure from its founding principles and susceptibility to foreign influences, particularly in the face of insufficient support against Islamist insurgencies. ECOWAS, in response to a series of coups since 2020, has imposed sanctions, which the juntas deem as “illegal and inhumane,” along with threats of force to restore constitutional order in Niger.
Nigeria, in its capacity as ECOWAS chair, criticized the unelected military authorities of the three countries for failing their people but expressed a willingness to engage with them. Established in 1975, ECOWAS has endeavored to foster economic and political collaboration within the region, comprising a mix of former French and British colonies.
The decision to withdraw from ECOWAS is anticipated to lead to increased tariffs and new restrictions on the movement of people, goods, and capital, according to Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners, likened the move to the UK’s Brexit decision, highlighting the potential adverse effects, particularly considering the trio’s relatively modest contribution to the bloc’s GDP.
While the withdrawal process typically spans at least a year under ECOWAS regulations, individuals residing outside their home countries may not immediately face consequences. However, there exists a possibility of significant population movements within the subregion, should the situation escalate.
Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank WATHI, noted that the trio stopped short of announcing their withdrawal from the regional monetary and economic union utilizing the CFA franc, a step that would have far-reaching consequences. He underscored the complexities associated with withdrawing from such a monetary union without establishing alternative currency systems.
In Bamako, Mali, opinions regarding the withdrawal vary, with some, like tailor Adama Coulibaly, viewing it as a necessary step due to perceived failures of ECOWAS, while others, like health worker Nagnouma Keita, express concerns over the economic repercussions, particularly for landlocked countries without access to maritime trade routes.
Analysts criticize ECOWAS for its swift punitive measures against the juntas, juxtaposed against its perceived leniency towards civilian leaders who extended their tenures through contentious electoral processes. The bloc’s failure to act decisively on its threats of military intervention also diminishes its credibility.
For years, security experts have stressed the importance of closer cooperation among regional countries to address security challenges stemming from insurgencies, poverty, neglect, and abuse. However, the current crisis within ECOWAS highlights the widening gap between Western-aligned elected governments and military-led administrations gravitating towards Russia and China.
Seidik Abba emphasizes that the departure from ECOWAS could severely hamper the region’s ability to address its myriad security challenges, indicating the far-reaching consequences of the withdrawal decision.
(Reuters)
