Namibians head to the polls on Wednesday for what is widely regarded as the most competitive election in the history of the ruling SWAPO party, which has governed the country since its independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990.
If Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, SWAPO’s presidential candidate, secures victory, she will become Namibia’s first female president. A loss for SWAPO, however, would mark the first transfer of power to another political party in 34 years.
Challenges to SWAPO’s Dominance
SWAPO’s popularity has significantly declined due to high unemployment, allegations of corruption, and persistent inequality. The party’s share of the vote fell from 87% in the 2014 presidential election to 56% in 2019. No reliable opinion polls are available to gauge its current standing.
Among the 14 opposition candidates, the leading challenger is Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO member and dentist. Itula, who garnered 29% of the vote in 2019, now leads the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), a party he founded after splitting from SWAPO.
Namibians vote separately for their president and members of parliament, with the presidential candidate needing more than 50% of votes to win outright.
“This will be the most challenging and significant election since the first one in 1989,” said Rui Tyitende, a political science lecturer at the University of Namibia.
Tyitende noted that the turnout among young voters—who make up over half of the electorate—could determine the outcome. “Young people are disproportionately affected by unemployment, poverty, and a deep sense of hopelessness. If they fail to show up at the polls, SWAPO will likely prevail,” he said.
Legacy of Inequality and Corruption
Namibia, classified by the World Bank as an upper-middle-income country, faces stark economic disparities. A 2021 government report revealed that 43% of the population lives in “multidimensional poverty,” a measure that factors in income, education, and access to public services. The country also ranks second globally in income inequality, trailing only neighboring South Africa.
Interim President Nangolo Mbumba has led the country since February following the death of former President Hage Geingob. Mbumba is not contesting the election.
SWAPO’s image has been tarnished by corruption scandals, most notably the “fishrot” case, which implicated two former ministers in a bribery scheme that surfaced in 2019. While Nandi-Ndaitwah herself has not been linked to any wrongdoing, the scandals have cast a long shadow over the party.
Outlook
As Namibians prepare to vote, the nation faces a critical juncture, with growing calls for change amid widespread economic and social challenges. The outcome could signal either a continuation of SWAPO’s long-standing rule or a historic shift in Namibia’s political landscape.
(Reuters)
