Nigeria’s crude oil exports fell by N3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025, signaling ongoing production challenges and shifting dynamics in the global energy market. The latest foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal that crude oil exports dropped to N24.92 trillion between January and June 2025, down from N28.10 trillion in the same period of 2024 — an 11.3% year-on-year decline.
A closer look shows that crude exports were valued at N12.96 trillion in Q1 2025, but weakened further to N11.97 trillion in Q2. This slump reduced crude’s contribution to total exports to just 52.6% in Q2 2025, a steep fall from 71.2% in Q2 2024, underscoring the gradual erosion of oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s external trade structure.
Given that crude oil remains the primary source of government revenue, the downturn raises fiscal concerns, especially as the government faces widening budgetary pressures.
Non-Crude Exports Power Growth
While crude exports faltered, non-crude export categories gained strong momentum. Total non-crude exports more than doubled, climbing from N8.79 trillion in H1 2024 to N18.43 trillion in H1 2025.
Within this segment, non-oil exports, including agricultural goods and solid minerals, maintained stability at just over N3 trillion across both quarters of the year. The biggest boost, however, came from refined petroleum products and semi-processed goods, which significantly expanded their share in the trade mix.
By mid-2025, non-crude exports accounted for 41% of total exports, compared to 24% a year earlier, reflecting Nigeria’s slow but visible progress in diversifying its trade profile away from crude oil.
Trade Surplus Strengthens Despite Oil Weakness
Despite the fall in oil revenues, Nigeria recorded an improved trade surplus in the first half of 2025. Total exports reached N43.35 trillion, while imports amounted to N30.71 trillion, leaving a surplus of N12.64 trillion. This represents a 54.6% increase from the N8.17 trillion surplus recorded in H1 2024.
In Q2 alone, Nigeria’s trade balance improved significantly, with the surplus widening by 44.3% to N7.46 trillion, up from N5.17 trillion in Q1. Total exports rose by 10.5% quarter-on-quarter to N22.75 trillion, while imports declined slightly by 0.9% to N15.29 trillion, reinforcing the surplus position.
Overall, exports as a share of total trade improved to 59.8% in Q2 2025, compared to 55.9% in Q2 2024, highlighting how robust non-crude exports helped offset the oil sector’s weakness.
Fuel Imports Still a Heavy Burden
Despite gains in trade performance, Nigeria continues to spend heavily on fuel imports. In the first half of 2025, the country spent a total of N4 trillion importing petroleum products. This included N1.76 trillion in Q1 and a higher N2.3 trillion in Q2, according to NBS data.
For context, Nigeria’s full-year fuel import bill in 2024 stood at N15.4 trillion, a figure that strained foreign reserves and contributed significantly to exchange rate volatility. Unless domestic refining capacity improves, fuel imports will remain a major drag on the external account, even as non-crude exports provide some relief.
Outlook
The mid-year trade data presents a mixed picture: while the decline in oil exports underscores Nigeria’s ongoing vulnerability to production and global price shifts, the growth of non-crude exports highlights opportunities for resilience. Policymakers face the dual challenge of stabilizing crude production while accelerating diversification into sectors such as agriculture, minerals, and value-added manufacturing to sustain long-term trade and fiscal stability.
