Guinea will hold a crucial referendum on Sunday, September 21, 2025, to decide on a new constitution that could reshape the country’s political future. The proposal would give junta leader Mamady Doumbouya the option to contest the presidency, despite his earlier pledge not to pursue the office when he seized power in a military takeover four years ago.
The vote marks a pivotal moment in the country’s uncertain transition toward civilian rule and comes against the backdrop of wider instability in West and Central Africa, where eight military coups between 2020 and 2023 have dramatically altered governance in the region. Campaigning officially ends on Wednesday, September 17, 2025, closing a tense political season filled with both anticipation and sharp criticism.
Following the September 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Condé, a transition charter was adopted with the stipulation that members of the ruling junta would be barred from contesting in upcoming national and local elections. However, the draft constitution now put to voters omits such restrictions, effectively opening the door for Doumbouya or other junta members to seek elected office.
So far, Doumbouya has not explicitly announced his intentions. Nonetheless, opposition voices argue that the referendum is less about building democracy and more about consolidating power. Critics have warned that the process risks undermining Guinea’s fragile political stability, particularly if viewed as a betrayal of earlier commitments.
Exiled opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo has been vocal in condemning the referendum, calling on Guineans to boycott what he described as a “masquerade.” Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces party, alongside Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People, has been suspended by the junta for alleged failures to comply with strict financial and administrative disclosure requirements. The suspensions have prevented these parties from mounting organized campaigns against the constitutional reform, deepening concerns over political repression.
In addition, Human Rights Watch has accused Doumbouya’s administration of enforced disappearances of political opponents and arbitrary suspensions of media outlets. The junta has denied involvement in disappearances but has promised investigations into such claims. Civil society organizations argue that these actions have created an environment of fear and mistrust, further eroding confidence in the credibility of the vote.
The government had initially pledged to hand power back to civilians by December 31, 2024, but missed that deadline. As it stands, presidential elections are now tentatively scheduled for December this year. If adopted, the new constitution would extend the presidential term from five to seven years, renewable once, and introduce a Senate as part of the legislative framework. Under this arrangement, the president would directly appoint one-third of the senators, while the remainder would be chosen by municipal and regional councils—a move critics fear could tilt the balance of power in favor of the executive.
Over 6.7 million registered voters are eligible to cast their ballots, and the constitution will be approved if it secures more than 50% of votes cast. Among supporters, the referendum is viewed as a necessary step toward restoring order and legitimizing governance.
Civil servant Ibrahima Camara expressed his backing, even updating his social media profile to a “Yes” campaign image. “It’s the most clear-sighted choice,” he explained. “We need a vote so Guinea can be governed by a constitution, a first step towards normalising the country.”
Yet in opposition-dominated areas, distrust remains high. Abdoulaye Diallo, a resident of Hamdallaye in Conakry, voiced frustration: “I won’t vote because the process isn’t transparent. You can’t talk about voting in Guinea without the main parties. In the long run, this will create unnecessary tensions.”
Analysts suggest that the outcome of Guinea’s referendum could reverberate beyond its borders. With the Sahel and West Africa already destabilized by successive coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Guinea’s path may influence broader regional attitudes toward military rulers’ participation in politics. International observers are closely monitoring the process, though concerns remain about transparency, voter intimidation, and the exclusion of key political players.
Ultimately, Sunday’s referendum will determine not only the country’s constitutional framework but also the credibility of its promised return to democracy. For many Guineans, the choice lies between embracing a potentially flawed process as a path toward stability or rejecting it as an attempt to entrench military power under a new guise.
