Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, a 53-year-old former army general, will seek a second term in the country’s November 23 presidential election, facing 11 challengers in a race that could reshape the political future of the coup-prone West African nation.
If successful, Embaló would become the first incumbent president to secure re-election in over three decades, a milestone in a country long plagued by coups, corruption, and political instability.
Below are profiles of the leading opposition contenders:
FERNANDO DIAS
At 47, Fernando Dias has emerged as an unexpected frontrunner and the most significant challenger to President Embaló. Though relatively unknown on the national stage, Dias’ candidacy gained momentum after securing the backing of former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira, Embaló’s main rival in the disputed 2019 election.
Pereira leads the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the historic party founded by liberation hero Amílcar Cabral, which led the independence movement against Portugal and remains a major political force. The PAIGC and its coalition, PAI Terra Ranka, were barred from participating in this year’s election after allegedly missing filing deadlines, a move that critics called politically motivated.
In response, Pereira endorsed Dias, significantly bolstering his support base.
“The unexpected PAIGC–Dias alliance challenges the regime’s certainty of a swift victory, making a second election round likely,”
said Paulin Maurice Toupane, Senior Researcher for West Africa at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
Dias, who studied law in Bissau, is the current president of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), traditionally supported by the Balanta, Guinea-Bissau’s largest ethnic group. He has pledged to strengthen national security and prevent constitutional changes that, he warns, could expand presidential powers if Embaló is re-elected.
JOSÉ MÁRIO VAZ
José Mário Vaz, 67, who served as president from 2014 to 2020, remains one of Guinea-Bissau’s most recognizable political figures. He was the first leader to complete a full term since the nation gained independence in 1974.
However, his administration was marked by intense political infighting, corruption allegations, and frequent government reshuffles — he appointed seven prime ministers in six years. Vaz lost his 2019 re-election bid in the first round with only 12% of the vote, later endorsing Embaló in the runoff.
Critics accuse him of failing to curb drug trafficking through Guinea-Bissau’s coastal archipelago, which has long served as a key transit route for South American cocaine bound for Europe.
Despite these setbacks, Vaz has vowed to return to office and “restore political stability and trust in government.”
BACIRO DJA
Baciro Dja, 52, is another familiar name in Bissau’s turbulent political scene. A former defense minister, Dja briefly served as prime minister twice under President Vaz, in 2015 and 2016. Both terms ended prematurely after Dja failed to secure full backing from the PAIGC, leaving him politically isolated.
In the 2019 presidential election, he finished sixth, garnering slightly more than 1% of the vote. Dja’s campaign this year focuses on rebuilding state institutions and fostering economic stability through agricultural development and regional trade.
JOÃO BERNARDO VIEIRA (JR.)
At 48, João Bernardo Vieira Jr. carries one of Guinea-Bissau’s most famous political names. He is the nephew and namesake of the late President João Bernardo Vieira, who ruled the country for nearly two decades across two non-consecutive terms before being assassinated in 2009.
The younger Vieira once served as spokesperson for the PAIGC but has since defected to the African Party for Freedom and Development of Guinea (PALDG). His campaign emphasizes economic modernization, anti-corruption measures, and reconciliation in a nation scarred by decades of military interference in politics.
A NATION AT A CROSSROADS
The upcoming election is seen as a pivotal test for Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democracy. Persistent reports of military influence, drug trafficking, and electoral disputes have undermined public trust in governance.
Should no candidate secure more than 50% of the votes, a runoff election will be held.
Political analysts warn that renewed instability remains a risk, but note that the growing Dias–PAIGC alliance could make the contest far more competitive than anticipated.
