Following the capture of Uvira by Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, concerns are rising over the potential next moves of the group in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Analysts suggest that the rebels could advance south toward Katanga, a region critical to Kinshasa’s economy and strategic interests.
Political scientist Christian Moleka Kibamgu, speaking to Africanews, outlined the rebels’ options:
“After Uvira, the M23 has three options: either leave Walikale and head towards Maniema and Kindu, or go north towards Kisangani, or go south towards Katanga. And I believe that the most likely scenario is that they will head south towards Katanga. Because they are in Uvira, they are on Lake Tanganyika, which also opens up to Kalemie and Tanganyika. But they can also descend towards Katanga from the mountains of the Mitambwe plateau.
“Katanga is strategically important because it is Kinshasa’s financial stronghold, including for the rebellion if they were to take control of the province. But they could also find a kind of political support base there, given the hostility of some Katangan leaders towards the Kinshasa regime. And today there are also far too many community tensions. So Katanga could be a much more favorable ally for the rebels than moving towards Kisangani.”
Kibamgu’s assessment highlights Katanga’s economic and political significance, as well as the potential for the rebels to leverage local tensions to their advantage.
