Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet.
Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet.
Dr. Chidi Amuta is the Executive Editor of USAfrica – since 1993
Nothing indicates that the 2027 general elections is barely 90 days away. Both the ruling APC and its major opponents seem stuck in an ideas quagmire. The only central national issue seems to be the theprices of petroleum products. It is all about the removal of petroleum subsidy and its devastating impact on the lives of nearly every honest Nigerian. Even on this single item in contention, an increasing amount of confusion and chaos is raging. The issues have hardly crystallized. If the campaign season remains fixated on issues at the gas pump, then it means that Tinubu and the APC have literally dictated a monolithic campaign subject for the season
Otherwise, each of the main contestants seems to have defined the 2027 presidential campaign around themselves and how they relate to petrol station issues. Mr. Tinubu as incumbent is trying very hard to sound nationalistic and statesmanlike around what he has described as his guiding reform. But his myopic vision and very sectional bent has constricted his scope and limited him to sheer survival matters and a struggle to understand the gravity of the challenges of the nation over which he is presiding.
From most indications barely a fortnight ago, the ruling APC appeared to have ledthe nation into seeing paradise in Tinubu’s peculiar hardship republic. For instance, in most of his last independence anniversary speech, President Tinubu crowed about the removal of subsidy on petroleum subsidy as“mission fulfilled”. He barely knew that most Nigerians were so pissed off that they hardly bothered to listen to the boring presidential broadcast. Nonetheless, the speech went ahead to praise the regime’s reform boldness and economic wizardry. It was of course a ruling party campaign speech which cited new statistics about macro- economic stability in the exchange rate regime, increase in foreign reserves, influx of foreign direct investmentsattracted by the president’s rest bed vacations in Paris. He also spoke aboutdeclining inflation figures not to talk of increased optimism of Nigerians in the ‘renewed hope’ agenda of the president.The summation of it all is that Nigerians have never had it so good and should get ready to re-elect the party and the president that have authored this paradise come the 2027 elections.
But less than a fortnight on, the song from the altar of power seems to be changing rapidly. The opposition campaigns seem to have hit a consensus that has unsettled the incumbent administration. Both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have indicated that they will overturn Tinubu’s petroleum subsidy removal gambit. They want to overturn Tinubu’s signature subsidy removal on petroleum products. The Presidency and the ruling party seems to have been rattled and routed. They have been stampeded into a confused reversal of the fuel subsidy policy banner.
Mr. Atiku Abubakar, flag bearer of the ADC is attracted by whatever will help him topple Mr. Tinubu. Understandably, he has grabbed at Tinubu’s jugular policy of fuel subsidy removal. He has threatened to reverse the entire policy while his main regional spokespersons are busy informing the northern segments of the electorate that Atiku is in the race to reverse the losses of the north under Tinubu. Add relief from the hardship of fuel subsidy removal to massive anti-Tinubu voter turnout and the Tinubu presidency is severely endangered.
Mr. Peter Obi of the NDC seems to be in a greater trouble than he was in 2023. ThjeObi campaign is severely distracted. He is being pushed into the corner of seeking the presidency to fill an Igbo South East slot or seeking a sectarian Christian mandate. Obihas always insisted on a nationalist appeal and targeting of youthful urban followership. But his detractors and distractors are busy shifting his attention towards regional and sectarian directions.
Mr. Obi’s nagging headache seems to be coming from people I prefer to call “backyard “opponents. These are political loud mouths from his home base South East. Both Anambra State’s lack lustreGovernor, Charles Soludo, and Tinubu’s Works Minister, Dave Umahi , have busied themselves with the task of demarketing Obi and seeking to constrict him into the Igbo presidential candidate that must be discredited and deactivated. Their infantile calculation is that an Obi victory in 2027 will stop their long term Igbo presidential ambition dead before take off.
But Mr. Obi’s national political strength does not lie in the South East. Of course,the Igbos are proud of Obi’s courage and admire his tenacity and political audacity.But he is not at the table as an Igbo “turn by turn” candidate. He has never been. On the contrary, he has consistently presented himself as the champion of a new politics above tribe, region and bigotry. He is the candidate of the internet generation, of the youth, of the urban elite who crave a nation finally freed from the burdens of the old politics. His appeal therefore cuts across familiar barriers and boundaries.
For Obi, the issues of petroleum subsidy and poverty can only be tackled in a new political environment freed from corruption, patronage and politics as usual. For him, the hardship that has resulted from the petroleum subsidy removal are consequwnces of lack of accountability in government which only good governance can solve.
Tinubu is threatened by the threat to reverse fuel subsidy removal , the burden of subsidy removal remains central. His campaign probably sees the danger in allowing Atiku to monopolize love of the people by relief from from hardship. Timubu does not want to carry the burden of impoverishing Nigerians alone. But he has a problem on what to do with the policy of wholesale subsidy removal and its direconsequences.
The administration has been thrown into a pandemonium of a possible policy reversals. Government has proposed a 30 -day N60 per litre discount on petroleum products to ease transportation difficulties. The details remain hazy and full of confusion. What will happen after the 30 days of discount? Will a token 30-day reprieve on fuel priceswipe away the erosion of the last three and half years? What will happen to the national revenue stream with a loss of N60 per litre of fuel for 30 days revenue? The elections come in a little over 90 days. When does the discount take effect if it is not to look like a pre-election mass bribe? Even if the discount is intended as a vote buying gimmick, how do you ensure that those who get the gas station discount are even registered voters or will actually go out to vote? Or that they are guaranteed to vote for the APC? Here is a juvenile gimmick that is dead on take off!
In any case, this single concession of a promised fuel price discount of N60 per litre amounts to nothing in a pump price regime that is currently over N1,400 per litre. It is even more untidy in a market where the difference between commercial vehicles and private cars is hazy. All Nigerians are bearing the excruciating pain of transportation fare hikes. Both those in private cars and those in mass transit buses are bearing the brunt of the price hikes. It is hard to determine the percentage of this so -called discount against the overall price increase resulting from the subsidy removal policy. Nor has government come forward with clear figures of what relief this discount amounts to in the income of those who today bear the brunt of the larger draconian fuel price hikes. And in any case, how many NNPC gas stations are there nationwide? How many buses and trucks will queue up endlessly just for a N60 per litre discount?
In the midst of the confusion among the parties in this campaign season, there is an untidy consensus. Every party is agreed that the levl of suffering is a threat to national peace and security. It is an undignifying submission to the superior argument of the opposition parties. The APC has tacitly agreed that Tinubu’s
thoughtless removal of subsidy on petroleum products is the ultimate source of the impoverishment of most Nigerians in the last three and half years. The resulting mass poverty is however now a multidimensional social and economic disaster. The solution can no longer be located at the gas station alone. Organized labour has demanded a new minimum wage of N500,000. In addition, it is demanding a petrol pump price of no more that N500 per litre. The possibility that these demands will linger into the elections is clear and present.
We can only hope that labour unrest does not dovetail into mass protest. Political trouble makers usually feast on general anarchy of the kind that is brewing now in Nigeria.
