The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has cautioned that 2027 may become the hottest year on record, primarily driven by a robust El Niño phenomenon generating extreme heat. This alert came as global leaders convened for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo indicated that El Niño serves as a significant factor in amplifying climate risks, asserting that weather events such as heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying beyond historically observed levels. Recent findings from the WMO revealed that each of the past 12 years ranks among the warmest recorded, with the last four years being the highest averages. For instance, the global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13 degrees, suggesting the world may have crossed the critical 1.5-degree threshold, last exceeded in 2024.
The WMO reported that severe weather, an increasing trend due to climate change, has had dire consequences globally this year. Preliminary estimates indicated that heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires in Europe resulted in over 30,000 excess deaths. Extreme conditions in India in April affected around 146.5 million individuals, and over 1,300 fatalities occurred from a glacier collapse and subsequent flash floods in the Himalayas in August. Additionally, global mean sea levels rose to historic levels this year, which experts link to El Niño as it redistributes rainfall away from land.
Causing expected disruptions into the next year, this developing El Niño is poised to be the strongest observed since 1950. Saulo noted that the phenomenon triggers extreme weather patterns and elevated temperatures, compounding existing climate change risks. The WMO report also highlighted that in 2025, glaciers worldwide shed more than 400 gigatons of ice, contributing to a sea level rise of one millimeter. John Kennedy, the head of Climate Information at the WMO, explained that the additional heat and moisture generated by El Niño increases the pre-existing risks associated with long-term climate change, while acknowledging that the frequency of El Niño events has risen in the 20th and 21st centuries without establishing a direct connection to climate change.
