After 15 states and one U.S. territory conducted votes on Tuesday, March 5, 2024, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump was poised to secure the Republican presidential nomination.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden secured victories across most contests on the Democratic side, advancing steadily towards the November general election.
Here are key insights from the Super Tuesday contests nationwide:
MIRROR MOMENT:
Haley faces a critical decision in the near future regarding her campaign’s trajectory. Tuesday’s outcomes offered little optimism, with Trump expected to prevail in most contested states. Notably, exit polls conducted by Edison Research suggested minimal growth in Haley’s support, particularly among entrenched Republicans, who increasingly rallied behind Trump as the nominee. Haley’s solitary victory of the night came in Vermont, as projected by Edison.
In states like Virginia, where Haley enjoyed substantial backing from independents, moderates, college graduates, and young voters, Trump maintained a significant lead, outpacing her by approximately 30 percentage points. The situation worsened for Haley in North Carolina, where despite her weekend events, Trump surpassed her among key demographics, including independents (54%-40%) and college-educated voters (56%-41%).
Even among individuals distancing themselves from Trump’s far-right movement, Haley faced defeat in North Carolina (51%-45%) and California (60%-36%). Trump demonstrated strength even in suburban areas, traditionally aligned with Haley’s supporters.
GETTING ON BOARD:
Simultaneously, Republican voters appear increasingly accepting of the possibility of their nominee facing criminal charges. Edison’s exit polls from the California primary indicated that merely 23% of voters deemed Trump unfit to serve as president if convicted of a crime.
The electorate participating in the California primary leans conservative, with the state restricting voting to registered Republicans. Nonetheless, the 23% figure represents a notable contrast to percentages in other conservative states like Iowa and South Carolina, where over 30% of respondents expressed doubts about Trump’s fitness for office under similar circumstances.
Trump faces multiple federal and state charges, including allegations related to his involvement in the 2020 election and handling of classified information, alongside a New York state case concerning payments to a porn star. Resolution of these cases may extend beyond the election timeline.
WARNING SIGNS FOR BIDEN:
Exit polls from California revealed a worrisome trend for the Biden campaign, with Trump dominating Haley among nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics. Despite California’s diverse electorate, Trump’s substantial lead among nonwhite voters underscores potential challenges for the Democratic coalition, traditionally reliant on Hispanic support. Recent polls indicate Trump’s growing appeal among nonwhite voters, particularly from the working class.
Haley’s candidacy, primarily targeting moderates and independents, failed to gain traction in California, where Trump secured broad support. Although Haley secured a majority of moderate voters in North Carolina and Virginia, Trump’s decisive win among independents in North Carolina suggests potential obstacles ahead for the Biden campaign.
TROUBLE AMONG INDEPENDENTS:
Trump’s relatively lackluster performance among independents in North Carolina, compared to his overall victory margin, raises concerns regarding his appeal to this crucial demographic. Trump’s weakness among independents was a pivotal factor in his 2020 electoral defeat to Biden. However, Ayres cautioned against presuming that Biden automatically garners support from disaffected Trump voters, who may opt for third-party candidates or abstain from voting altogether.
The trend among independents who favored Haley in North Carolina indicates uncertainty about supporting the Republican nominee in November.
SIGNS OF ANTI-TRUMP TURNOUT:
Biden’s historically low approval ratings have fueled concerns within Democratic circles regarding potential voter apathy. However, Virginia’s primary elections on Tuesday suggested heightened anti-Trump sentiment, evident in increased Democratic participation in the Republican primary. The uptick in Democratic voters participating in the Republican primary reflects the significance of anti-Trump sentiment as a motivating factor.
NO PENALTY:
Biden’s decision to relegate Iowa in the nominating calendar did not incur backlash from Democratic voters, as evidenced by his resounding victory in the state. Despite concerns, Biden faced no real competition within his party, with his reelection campaign poised to intensify post-State of the Union address preparations.
JASON PALMER, WHO?
Biden’s sole setback on Tuesday came from Democratic candidate Jason Palmer in American Samoa, highlighting unexpected challenges within the territory. Palmer, previously overlooked, emerged victorious, signaling potential shifts in Democratic dynamics.
GEORGIA ON THEIR MINDS:
As Biden and Trump redirect their focus towards Georgia following Super Tuesday, the state’s significance in the upcoming general election looms large. Both contenders plan visits to Georgia, underscoring its pivotal role as a battleground state. Georgia’s razor-thin margin in the 2020 election and subsequent legal battles emphasize its strategic importance in the upcoming electoral showdown.
The visits by Biden and Trump mark the beginning of heightened engagement in Georgia, a state likely to witness intense political activity leading up to November’s general election. (ref: Reuters)
