Despite his incarceration and status as a former president embroiled in controversy, Jacob Zuma emerges as a pivotal figure in South Africa’s electoral landscape, wielding significant influence as a political maverick.
In a bold maneuver, Zuma has opted to part ways with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in favor of aligning himself with the nascent uMkhonto we Sizwe party, translating to Spear of the Nation. At 81 years old, he assumes leadership of its campaign for the upcoming general election on May 29, 2024, advocating for a divergence from the ANC under the leadership of his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Political analyst Richard Calland elucidated Zuma’s strategic maneuvering, stating, “Zuma is, as ever, playing a mischievous hand. He doesn’t want power, but leverage in the ANC. He wants to dethrone Ramaphosa for a more pliable leader.”
Recent opinion polls indicate a significant impact by Zuma’s party, identified by the acronym MK, projecting approximately 13% of the national vote and 25% in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s political stronghold. However, Angelo Fick, Director of Research at the Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute in Johannesburg, expresses skepticism regarding the party’s electoral prospects, opining that it may garner fewer votes, particularly in the national parliamentary ballot. “I’ll be surprised if it gets 6%,” Fick remarked.
Prof. Calland attributes the party’s traction to Zuma’s personal charisma and populist appeal, underscoring his enduring influence, particularly among KwaZulu-Natal residents. With aspirations to sway the balance of power, the MK party’s potential gains hold significance, given indications from various opinion polls suggesting the ANC could lose its outright majority in the national parliament for the first time since the end of white-minority rule three decades ago.
Paddy Harper, correspondent for the South African Mail & Guardian newspaper in KwaZulu-Natal, highlights the strategic significance of the province, historically pivotal for the ANC. He emphasizes the potential ramifications of a shift in control, stating, “When Zuma was in the ANC, KwaZulu-Natal became the party’s largest and most influential province.”
The ANC, initially dismissive of the MK party’s formation, has escalated the conflict by pursuing legal action to deregister the party and contest its use of the name MK, arguing copyright ownership over the acronym with deep political symbolism harkening back to the anti-apartheid struggle.
Controversy surrounds Zuma’s eligibility as a parliamentary candidate due to his prior conviction for contempt of court in 2021. Despite this legal obstacle, the MK party has positioned Zuma as its lead parliamentary candidate, prompting speculation and potential political fallout.
Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, Zuma’s daughter, assumes a prominent role within the MK party, indicative of familial succession dynamics and allegiance to her father’s political legacy, despite her own controversial remarks during the 2021 riots.
As the electoral contest unfolds, tensions escalate between Zuma and Ramaphosa, fueling concerns over potential violence amid a fiercely contested campaign for votes.
