Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet
“The ballot is stronger than the bullet – unless the ballot has already been taken hostage.”
The Shadows Over 2027
Democracy in Nigeria has long danced on the precipice of ruin, but under the emerging shadows of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, what we may be witnessing is a full-blown state capture experiment – carefully engineered to consolidate control over the 2027 general elections, even before the race officially begins. It is no longer a contest of ideology or performance, but a twisted chessboard where state governors are pawns, institutions are silencers, and the electorate is an irrelevant footnote in the high-stakes plot to retain power by any means necessary.
The Anatomy of a State Capture Project
Since assuming office in 2023, President Tinubu has shown remarkable clarity – not in governance or economic direction – but in deploying executive muscle and manipulative charm to collapse resistance and absorb rival political structures. The trend is loud and clear:
• In Abia State, former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu is spearheading efforts to collapse the APC-PDP divide in favour of Tinubu’s re-election ambition.
• In Kano and Delta, murmurings of structure-surrender from heavyweights like Kwankwaso and Okowa are becoming too consistent to ignore.
• In Akwa Ibom, the governor is already singing hymns of loyalty to the President’s 2027 project.
• And in Rivers State, a crude and unconstitutional weaponization of federal power is being used to terrorize Governor Fubara into submission – a pseudo-military operation dressed in civilian robes.
This is not politics; this is electoral engineering with fascist tools. The message to governors is simple: join us or fall.
The Electorate Class: The Forgotten Sovereigns
In all these desperate maneuvers, one class of people has been visibly absent from the calculus: the Nigerian electorate. The same people whose votes supposedly put these actors in office are now being bypassed entirely in favour of elite consensus and forceful co-optation. The real owners of sovereignty have become spectators in a democracy they are expected to protect.
Rather than govern with credibility and accountability, Tinubu’s political playbook reads like a script from the annals of dictatorship, ironically performed in a democratic theatre.
But Nigerians are not blind. Nor are they as docile as the political class hopes.
Performance vs. Propaganda: Tinubu’s Disastrous Report Card
By all fair measures, President Tinubu has underperformed:
• His economic reforms have plunged millions into extreme poverty.
• *The Naira continues to wail in free fall.
• Fuel prices, food, and basic living costs have made existence itself a luxury.
• Insecurity continues to bleed the country, with no coherent strategy in sight.
President Tinuhu is just lest than two years in office. Rather than take these issues head-on, he and his proxies are busy lobbying governors for re-election endorsements – as though a rented elite consensus can substitute for the mass legitimacy of the people.
A Warning From the Obidient Movement
The Obidient Movement of 2022/2023 shook the foundations of political complacency in Nigeria. It wasn’t just a support base; it was an uprising of moral conscience, especially among Nigeria’s disillusioned youth and middle class. It revealed that when the people choose to organize outside of the traditional political establishment, the system begins to tremble.
Though the movement fell short electorally due to elite collusion, INEC’s controversial conduct, and judicial betrayal, it showed that a Third Force is not a fantasy – it is a necessity.
But for 2027, a more sophisticated, wider-reaching, and structure-based Third Force is needed. Not just a movement of feelings, but of facts, strategy, ideology, and deep grassroots penetration.
2027: Nigeria’s Last Democratic Stand?
If this unholy convergence of power brokers, political mercenaries, and institutional saboteurs is allowed to continue unchecked, 2027 could become the gravestone of democracy in Nigeria.
But if ordinary Nigerians rise – not just to protest, but to organize, to mobilize, and to disrupt the inappropriate – then 2027 may also be the year of Nigeria’s Second Independence: not from colonialists, but from a political class that has colonized the people.
A Rallying Cry for the Third Force
It’s time for:
• Professionals, activists, students, and the rural poor to unite.
• New political alliances outside the old APC/PDP duopoly to emerge.
• Voter education, digital mobilization, and grassroots organizing to intensify.
• Diaspora involvement to be structured and strategic.
• CSOs, media, and faith leaders to choose conscience over compromise.
Nigeria’s salvation will not come from above. It will come from beside you – the ordinary Nigerian who has suffered enough and is finally ready to take back what is rightfully theirs.
Conclusion: History is Waiting
The next election is not just another four-year cycle. It is the battle for the soul of Nigeria. Either the people rise, or the politicians reign. Either democracy breathes, or it is buried.
2027 is coming. Let them plan. Let us prepare.
