The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has pushed back against recent remarks made by African Development Bank (AfDB) President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina regarding Nigeria’s economic trajectory since independence. Adesina had suggested that Nigerians are economically worse off today than they were in 1960—a claim the presidency has firmly disputed.
In a statement that gained significant attention, Dr. Adesina contended that Nigeria’s GDP per capita had declined from $1,847 in 1960 to $824 in 2024, citing this as an indication of worsening poverty and lagging human development in Africa’s most populous nation.
In a formal response issued late Sunday, presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga strongly dismissed the AfDB president’s claims, stating, “Adesina spoke like a politician, in the mould of Peter Obi and did not do due diligence before making his unverifiable statement.”
The Tinubu administration accused Dr. Adesina of relying on inaccurate data and failing to conduct proper research. According to the Presidency, historical economic records show that Nigeria’s GDP in 1960 was approximately $4.2 billion with a population of 44.9 million, resulting in a per capita income of just $93—not the $1,847 cited by Adesina.
The statement outlined Nigeria’s economic progression, noting that substantial growth began in the 1970s during the oil boom. By 1981, the country’s GDP had reached $164 billion, with a per capita peak of $3,200 recorded in 2014 following a statistical rebasing.
Onanuga also challenged the relevance of GDP per capita as a standalone measure of societal wellbeing. He emphasized that the metric does not reflect income distribution, informal economic activity, or key development indicators such as health, education, and infrastructure.
He noted, “Our country’s GDP did not rise remarkably until the 1970s, when crude earnings ballooned. In 1970, our GDP rose to $12.55 billion. In 1975, it was $27.7 billion; $64.2 billion in 1980; and $164 billion in 1981. Up until 1980, per capita income did not exceed $880. It rose to $2187 in 1981 and dropped to $1844 in 1982. In 2014, after rebasing, it reached an all-time high of $3,200.
These facts raise questions about the source of Dr Adesina’s figures.
But my mission in this response is not to poke holes in the erudite African banking president’s figures. The more substantive issue lies in Dr. Adesina’s conclusion based on these numbers.”
Onanuga continued by cautioning against using GDP per capita as a definitive gauge of quality of life:
“Dr Adesina should know that GDP per capita is not the only criterion used to determine whether people live better lives now than in the past. Indeed, it is a poor tool for assessing living standards.
Its primary usefulness is in giving us the metrics to compare economic output in a country or between countries.
GDP masks many activities in a country’s economy. It neither discloses wealth distribution or income inequality nor accounts for the informal economy, which experts have said is enormous. It does not account for subsistence farming or income transfer from one family member to another.
GDP per capita is silent on whether Nigerians in 2025 enjoy better access to healthcare, education, and transportation, such as rail and air transport, than in 1960.
This premise alone suggests why Dr Adesina should not have arrived at his conclusion. Compared with 1960, Nigeria today has more primary, secondary, and tertiary schools. We have more road networks and more medical facilities, private and public.”
Highlighting tangible progress, the Presidency pointed to the growth of the telecommunications sector as an example of how standard economic indicators can miss broader advancements.
“We have phenomenal access to telephones. At Independence, we had 18,724 operational phone lines for a population of about 45 million. Over 200 million Nigerians now enjoy near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services, indicating we are better off today than 65 years ago.”
In conclusion, Onanuga maintained that the country’s economic footprint has expanded significantly since its independence.
“No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960. Today, as we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say without contradiction that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence,” he said.
