Guinea’s transitional authorities have formally declared December 28 as the date for the country’s first presidential election in four years, marking a significant political milestone since the 2021 military coup that ousted former president Alpha Condé. The announcement comes in the wake of a deeply divisive constitutional referendum that has redrawn the political landscape and opened the door for the ruling junta leader, General Mamady Doumbouya, to seek the presidency.
The constitutional referendum, held on September 21, was presented by the transitional government as a necessary step toward returning Guinea to civilian rule. Official statistics released by the electoral commission claimed that 89% of voters endorsed the proposed changes, with turnout reported at 86%. However, the credibility of the vote has been strongly contested. The opposition boycotted the referendum entirely, denouncing it as an “electoral masquerade” and alleging that the outcome “was known in advance.” Civil society groups and international observers have also voiced concerns over the lack of transparency and inclusiveness in the process.
One of the most controversial aspects of the constitutional reforms is the provision that now permits General Doumbouya to run for president. When he seized power in September 2021, Doumbouya pledged that neither he nor other members of the military-led transitional government would contest elections designed to restore democracy. The reversal of this earlier promise has heightened skepticism among political opponents, who accuse the junta of entrenching itself in power rather than genuinely facilitating democratic transition.
The new constitution also extends the presidential term from five to seven years, renewable once, a change that critics argue could consolidate long-term power for whoever assumes office under the new framework. This amendment echoes broader concerns across West Africa, where constitutional revisions have increasingly been used by leaders to extend their political tenure, fueling instability and weakening democratic institutions.
Since taking power, Doumbouya has governed Guinea with strict military authority, frequently justifying his administration’s actions as necessary for restoring order and stability. His government has invested in security, state discipline, and restructuring governance institutions, but human rights groups have criticized the regime for heavy-handed tactics, suppression of dissent, and restrictions on freedom of expression. Several opposition figures and activists have been arrested or intimidated, raising doubts about the fairness of the forthcoming election.
Despite these challenges, the scheduled December vote represents a pivotal moment for Guinea’s political future. Supporters of the constitutional changes argue that Doumbouya has restored a degree of stability following years of political turbulence under Condé and that his leadership could help steer the nation toward economic and institutional reforms. They highlight Guinea’s vast mineral wealth, particularly in bauxite, and argue that political continuity under Doumbouya could unlock long-term development opportunities.
Opponents, however, remain deeply skeptical, warning that the election may merely serve to legitimize military rule under the guise of democratic processes. With major opposition parties excluded from the referendum and still divided over strategy, they face an uphill battle in mounting an effective challenge. The boycott of September’s vote has further deepened mistrust between the junta and its critics, leaving open questions about whether the December election can be seen as credible domestically or internationally.
As Guinea moves toward its first presidential election since the coup, the stakes are high not only for its 13 million citizens but also for West Africa, a region where military takeovers and constitutional manipulations have become increasingly common. The success or failure of the December election will be a defining test of whether Guinea can transition toward genuine democracy or remain locked in a cycle of authoritarian governance masked by electoral formality.
