Madagascar is observing the first anniversary of the military takeover by Michael Randrianirina, who assumed the presidency following weeks of protests led by young activists. The protests resulted in the ousting of elected president Andry Rajoelina. Since then, Russia has significantly expanded its influence in the island nation through deepening military connections and the provision of military aid.
Randrianirina was officially sworn in on October 17, 2025. His leadership followed intense demonstrations calling for better access to essential services and government accountability. Just days after his inauguration, discussions between Randrianirina and the Russian ambassador signaled an accelerated engagement with Moscow, marking the beginning of reported military and economic collaborations.
Recent research highlights the establishment of strategic networks in Madagascar by Russian military intelligence, with the presence of influential figures like General Andrey Averyanov, who arrived in late 2025 to oversee the Africa Corps, a paramilitary organization. This coincided with various military shipments to Madagascar, described as donations of equipment, including helicopters and weapons.
The report also emphasizes that Russia is not just focusing on military aspects; they are engaging with local media and initiating community outreach aimed at young people. This strategy is seen as part of a broader effort to strengthen their foothold in Madagascar, especially with plans for the port of Antsiranana, which could serve as a vital access point for Russian maritime operations.
Despite the transition in power, many of the protesting populace feel disillusioned, as the political reforms they sought remain largely unfulfilled. Political scientist Ketakandriana Rafitoson notes the ongoing repression of youth activists and suggests that while there has been a shift in leadership, fundamental institutional changes are yet to be achieved.
As Madagascar grapples with its new political landscape and external influences, the potential for further developments in both governance and international relations remains closely monitored.
