On December 17, over eight million Chadians are set to participate in a referendum on a new constitution, as announced by the National Commission overseeing the constitutional referendum.
The trajectory of the ballot appears to favor General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno from the outset, primarily due to the government’s failure to adhere to the national dialogue’s recommendation, which advocated for allowing the people to determine the state’s form. Despite a segment of the opposition endorsing federalism, only one proposal, that of a unitary state, is put forth, with government support.
In N’Djamena, walls are adorned with posters advocating for a “yes” vote for a constitution supporting a “unitary and decentralized state.” This closely mirrors the constitution repealed by the military in 2021, establishing a regime where the head of state wields substantial power.
The likelihood of the “yes” side prevailing is apparent, given the government’s robust campaign overshadowing the “no” campaign. This campaign capitalizes on the endorsement of Succès Masra, an opponent who reached a tentative agreement with the military in late October. This coalition presents a formidable challenge to a fractured opposition that has endured violent repression for over a year.
The referendum represents the conclusive step toward the elections pledged by the junta since assuming power in 2021.
The two primary opposition platforms, critical of the junta, are advocating for a boycott, displaying “Stop the Referendum” posters marked with prominent red crosses. They aim to diminish turnout, hoping to delegitimize a general accused of perpetuating a 33-year “Déby dynasty.”
