As the U.S. military concludes the removal of its remaining equipment and counter-terrorism personnel from Niger, American officials caution that monitoring the escalating insurgencies in West Africa is becoming increasingly challenging.
Niger’s military government has set a deadline of September 15 for U.S. troops to leave the country, which includes abandoning a $100 million drone base near Agadez in central Niger. This base has been a critical asset for gathering intelligence on groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
“Our ability to monitor the threat is degraded because of the loss of Agadez,” one U.S. official stated in an interview with Reuters, requesting anonymity.
U.S. authorities are particularly concerned about the expansion of the Islamic State and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda affiliate.
Michael Langley, the four-star Marine general in charge of U.S. forces in Africa, highlighted the challenge of identifying when militant groups could grow to pose a threat to the United States or Europe.
“It has the potential (to become a threat to the United States) as they grow in numbers. But we want to be able to monitor … to see if it metastasizes into increased capability,” Langley remarked at a conference of African defense chiefs in Botswana.
Experts warn of the difficulties ahead, drawing parallels to Afghanistan, where intelligence gathering on al Qaeda and the Islamic State has significantly diminished since the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s takeover in 2021.
“When we leave an area like the Sahel, and Afghanistan, we not only cannot (act on) an immediate threat with military and intelligence forces, we don’t know about the plotting of an attack because of our reduced (intelligence) collection capabilities,” explained Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official and CIA officer.
Operational Setbacks
Since 2020, military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have ousted civilian leaders, accusing them of failing to curb Islamist militant advances. The new juntas have nullified defense agreements with U.S., French, and U.N. forces, turning instead to Russian support.
“We have to not only figure the best way to handle what are tactical and operational setbacks, but also how to prevent them from becoming a strategic reverse,” said J. Peter Pham, a former U.S. envoy to the Sahel.
In an effort to strategize, Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, traveled to Botswana to engage with African military leaders. This marked the first visit by the highest-ranking U.S. military officer to sub-Saharan Africa in three decades.
During his keynote address at the conference on Tuesday, Brown emphasized the importance of collaboration with African partners and highlighted non-military strategies to tackle challenges on the continent.
“To achieve lasting, shared peace, prosperity, and security, it’s not about one country dominating or deciding what will work for another,” Brown stated. “It’s about using our shared insights, experiences, and perspectives.”
(Reuters)
