Dangote Refinery anticipates its first crude batch in June 2023. According to a report released on May 16, 2023, by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Dangote refinery is anticipating the arrival of its first crude batch in June 2023.
The refinery expects to start processing this first batch of 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) before progressively boosting production to 650,000 b/d by mid-2024, according to a spokesman from the facility. President Buhari is slated to officially commission the Dangote refinery on May 22.
The study also emphasizes that Nigeria, a nation with a production capacity of 2.5 million b/d, will supply a sizeable share of the crude oil for the refinery. However, Nigeria has had difficulty producing more than 1.2 million b/d due to concerns like instability, theft, strikes, and operational troubles with old wells.
According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Dangote refinery will produce polypropylene, diesel, and gasoline that complies with Euro 5 standards. According to the company’s data, output of motor gasoline (petrol) is anticipated to increase from its current level of almost nil to 249,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 and to approach 300,000 b/d by 2033. The research also predicts that by 2026, gasoline imports will have dropped by more than half, to 154,000 b/d.
Furthermore, the research indicates that imports would once again surpass domestic output by 2042 due to Nigeria’s anticipated strong population expansion in the ensuing decades. Notably, Nigeria will start exporting gasoil starting in the following year, with output expected to rise from 3,500 b/d in 2023 to 211,000 b/d in 2027.
Forecast on Nigeria’s crude production
Over the next ten years, Nigeria’s oil production is anticipated to be stable at around 1.3 million b/d, according to S&P analysts. On the other hand, it is anticipated that the Dangote refinery’s opening will significantly affect oil exports. According to the prediction, Nigeria is expected to produce 1.46 million barrels per day and export 1.45 million barrels per day in 2023. Oil exports are predicted to fall to 656,000 b/d by 2027, despite a minor decline in output to 1.30 million b/d. The Dangote refinery’s operational effect is to blame for the fall in exports.
Dangote refinery is expected to significantly contribute to Nigeria’s economic growth by meeting the country’s full domestic demand for a range of liquid products. This covers necessities including gasoline, diesel, polypropylene, kerosene, and jet fuel for airplanes.
Aliko Dangote highlighted the refinery’s role in encouraging the growth of new sectors in a recent interview with The Economist. Dangote emphasized that the refinery’s production of essential goods like naphtha and polypropylene would act as a catalyst for the expansion of sectors like the cosmetics, plastics, and textile industries.
This shows that the refinery’s operations would benefit the Nigerian economy and encourage the growth of a variety of sectors.
