Last week, Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Cissoko Embalo announced that he will not seek a second term in the upcoming November elections, despite being eligible for re-election. However, he also declared that none of his political rivals—Domingos Simoes Pereira, Braima Camara, or Nuno Nabiam—would succeed him, stating, “Guinea-Bissau deserves better politicians.”
Political Rivalries and Tensions
Embalo’s primary political opponent, Domingos Simoes Pereira, leads the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which once governed the country following its independence from Portugal in 1974. Embalo, a former member of the PAIGC and prime minister from 2016 to 2018, left the party to help found the Movement for Democratic Alternation (Madem G15).
Although the PAIGC won the most seats in the last parliamentary elections, Embalo refused to appoint Pereira as prime minister, dissolving parliament and ruling by decree since December 2023. Pereira, who considers himself politically persecuted, fled to Portugal but returned to Guinea-Bissau after receiving assurances that his parliamentary immunity would be upheld. He declined to comment on Embalo’s decision not to run for a second term, calling it a “personal decision.”
Meanwhile, Braima Camara, the president of Madem G15, has also clashed with Embalo. Camara accused Embalo of undermining democratic institutions, leading to a split within the party, with factions loyal to either Camara or Embalo vying for control.
Nuno Nabiam, another former ally and leader of the APU-PDGB party, served as prime minister under Embalo from 2020 to 2023. He later accused Embalo of authoritarianism, claiming that the president controlled all major decisions during his tenure as prime minister. After their fallout, Nabiam relocated to Portugal and recently criticized Embalo’s decision not to seek re-election, calling it a diversion from the country’s real issues, particularly drug trafficking.
Rising Concerns Over Drug Trafficking
Nabiam’s accusations follow a significant drug bust on September 7, when Guinea-Bissau’s Judicial Police, in collaboration with international anti-narcotics agencies, seized an aircraft carrying over 2.6 tons of cocaine at Bissau airport. The plane was reportedly from Venezuela, though Venezuelan authorities denied involvement.
Speculation on Embalo’s Motives
Political analyst Luis Petit believes Embalo’s announcement not to run for a second term is a calculated move. “Sissoco Embalo is a master of political intrigue. He seizes every opportunity to weaken his opponents and manipulate the political situation to his advantage,” Petit said. He pointed to the 2022 coup attempt and the subsequent imprisonment of over 50 political enemies as part of Embalo’s strategy to solidify power.
Petit speculates that Embalo may still be planning to seek re-election. During a recent meeting with Madem G15 supporters, Embalo hinted that he could change his mind, stating, “If the people still want me as their president, I probably won’t be able to refuse.”
Guinea-Bissau’s Political Uncertainty
As Guinea-Bissau faces mounting political challenges, the country’s future remains uncertain. While parliamentary elections are set for November, no date has been confirmed for the presidential election, which, according to the law, must also take place this year. Embalo, however, has suggested that the presidential vote could be postponed until 2025.
With ongoing rivalries, Embalo’s conflicting statements, and concerns over democratic stability, the political trajectory of Guinea-Bissau is unclear. Whether the country will achieve greater stability or face further unrest remains to be seen.
