Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet
Rivers State is no longer just a battleground for political supremacy; it is fast becoming a flashpoint of national crisis – a boiling cauldron of legal manipulation, economic sabotage, security threats, and raw political ambition. The latest developments signal a dangerous trajectory, one that could not only destabilize the South-South region but also threaten Nigeria’s economic survival and political stability.
1. The Judiciary: Law vs. Justice in the Rivers Crisis
At the heart of the Rivers State crisis lies a fundamental question: What happens when the law contradicts common sense, and legalism overrides the principles of justice? The recent Supreme Court judgment that validates the continued stay of the 27 defected lawmakers in the Rivers State House of Assembly is a case study in judicial contradiction.
The Nigerian Constitution, in Section 109(1)(g), explicitly states that a lawmaker loses their seat upon defection from the party under which they were elected, unless there is a division within the party. Yet, 27 PDP lawmakers defected to the APC and still retained their seats, defying logic, precedent, and the democratic spirit of fair representation.
How do we reconcile this with the essence of justice? …
• If political defectors can hold onto power, what stops future legislators from defecting at will without consequence?
• If party allegiance is meaningless, then what legitimacy does democracy itself have in Nigeria?
• If the Supreme Court – the final arbiter of justice – can uphold such legal gymnastics, then is justice still an expectation or just a tool of political convenience?
By shielding defectors from the natural consequences of their actions, the Judiciary has essentially given politicians a blank cheque to undermine democracy while hiding under legal loopholes. This is not justice – it is legal technicality at the expense of common sense.
2. Rivers State’s Financial Strangulation: A Federal Push into Confrontation?
Following the Supreme Court verdict, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has halted all federal allocations to Rivers State, citing compliance with the ruling. This move, while seemingly legal, is a political masterstroke in economic sabotage.
• Rivers State, like most Nigerian states, heavily depends on federal allocations to function. With the sudden cutoff of funds, the state is now forced into a survivalist economy, relying solely on Internally Generated Revenue (IGR).
• But can Rivers State sustain itself on IGR alone, given its high infrastructural and governance costs? Highly unlikely.
This raises a dangerous scenario:
• A desperate Rivers State government could seek alternative means of economic survival, including cutting off federal access to resources, oil, and critical state-controlled infrastructure.
• A financially desperate state government could mobilize regional support against the federal government, escalating into an open confrontation between Rivers and Abuja.
• If the Federal Government pushes too hard, Rivers could turn into an ungovernable state, setting a precedent for other aggrieved states to challenge Abuja’s authority.
3. Economic Fallout: Can Nigeria Survive Another Niger Delta Militancy Surge?
Rivers State is not just any state – it is an economic powerhouse. A look at the numbers confirms its strategic importance:
• Rivers State contributes over 40% of Nigeria’s crude oil output.
• The state is home to Bonny Island, where Nigeria’s largest gas export terminal is located.
• The Port Harcourt refinery, the nation’s major refining infrastructure, sits within Rivers.
• It has one of the highest IGRs in Nigeria, second only to Lagos.
With these massive economic assets, Rivers State is not a state Nigeria can afford to destabilize. Yet, political actors including militants, ex-militants, and rogue security factions are already polarizing along the Wike-Fubara divide.
The biggest threat? Militant retaliation.
• The Niger Delta is no stranger to armed struggle. The 2006-2009 militant insurgency nearly collapsed Nigeria’s oil production.
• If the political chaos escalates into a full-blown confrontation, militants may target pipelines, oil facilities, and government institutions.
• A return to organized armed conflict in Rivers could cripple Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy, sending the country into a deep economic crisis.
• Worse, if conflict spreads to other South-South states, Nigeria could face an uncontrollable secessionist movement, especially in a period where regional tensions are already high.
4. The 2027 Game: Rivers as a Pawn in Tinubu’s Power Calculations
Beneath the chaos is a bigger strategic play – the 2027 presidential election. The body language of the Tinubu Presidency suggests a calculated plan to take control of Rivers at all costs.
• Why? Rivers is a strategic electoral stronghold – one of the few swing states that can determine the outcome of a presidential election.
• The Plan? Ensure APC controls Rivers State heading into 2027, solidifying Tinubu’s reelection chances.
• The Execution? Weaken or eliminate opposition structures (Fubara), strengthen APC-aligned political actors (Wike), and manipulate the security and judicial institutions to enforce the plan.
But here’s the danger:
• The APC takeover strategy could backfire spectacularly, as it already appears that Tinubu’s tactics are fueling instability instead of securing dominance.
• If the Rivers crisis spirals beyond control, it could trigger a chain reaction of anti-Federal Government movements, making the 2027 elections even more unpredictable.
• Worse still, if Rivers descends into full-scale violence, it may mark the beginning of an uncontrollable nationwide crisis that could push Nigeria towards the brink.
Conclusion: Will Rivers State Be the Spark That Ignites Nigeria’s Collapse?
Rivers State is more than a political battlefield – it is a ticking time bomb. Every key player – the Judiciary, the Federal Government, the militants, and political actors – is making moves that could accelerate the state’s descent into total anarchy.
If the current trajectory continues:
- The Judiciary will continue to undermine democratic accountability.
- The Federal Government will push Rivers into economic strangulation.
- Militants will exploit the chaos, plunging Nigeria into another oil insurgency.
- Tinubu’s APC will attempt a forceful political takeover, but it may unleash an uncontrollable crisis.
The question remains: How long before the inevitable explosion? If Nigeria is not careful, the political Afghanistanization of Rivers State may very well become the beginning of Nigeria’s most dangerous unraveling.
