Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet
Introduction: The Brewing Storm
The crisis in Rivers State is no longer just a local political battle – it has become a national symbol of Nigeria’s failing democracy, unchecked executive power, and the dangerous fusion of politics, oil wealth, and security threats. With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s intervention, Governor Similaya Fubara’s battle for survival, and former Governor Ezenwo Nyesom Wike’s godfather ambitions, the stakes are higher than ever.
At its core, this crisis tests the very foundation of Nigeria’s democracy:
• Can an elected governor be removed by presidential fiat?
• Should defected lawmakers remain in power despite constitutional provisions against it?
• What happens when a state that fuels Nigeria’s economy is politically strangled?
• Is Rivers State on the brink of violent insurgency?
The answers to these questions will shape not only Rivers State’s future but also Nigeria’s 2027 elections, economic stability, and security architecture.
The Genesis: Power, Betrayal, and the 2023 Elections
The root of the Rivers crisis can be traced back to Nyesom Wike’s ambition and betrayal of the PDP in 2023. After losing the PDP presidential primary to Atiku Abubakar, Wike vowed to destroy the party that made him. He orchestrated the infamous G5 rebellion, worked against Atiku, and ensured Bola Tinubu’s victory in Rivers State.
But Wike’s real political insurance policy was handpicking Sim Fubara as his puppet governor, expecting absolute loyalty. Fubara, however, had other plans – he started asserting independence, removing Wike’s loyalists, and defying his benefactor.
What followed was a full-blown political war, with the Rivers State House of Assembly splitting into two hostile factions:
- The Wike Loyalists (27 lawmakers who defected to APC)
- The Fubara Camp, struggling to retain legitimacy
This battle paved the way for Tinubu’s intervention, raising constitutional and democratic concerns.
Tinubu’s Power Grab: Executive Overreach at Its Worst
On March 18, 2025, President Bola Tinubu took an unprecedented step:
• He suspended Governor Sim Fubara, his deputy, and the 27 defected lawmakers.
• He appointed a military administrator in Rivers State, effectively dissolving civilian rule.
• Federal funds to Rivers State were blocked, leaving the state to survive on its Internally Generated Revenue (IGR).
The Constitutional Problem
Tinubu’s action violates Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution, which states that:
- Only the National Assembly can approve a state of emergency.
- A governor cannot be removed except through impeachment or resignation.
- Legislators who defect from their party must vacate their seats (Section 109(1)(g)).
Tinubu ignored all these provisions, using raw political power instead of legal or democratic means. This move sets a dangerous precedent – what stops the president from removing other governors at will?
Even the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) condemned Tinubu’s move, calling it a return to military-style dictatorship in a civilian disguise.
The Role of the Judiciary: Legal Gymnastics vs. Justice
The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Rivers lawmakers exposed the judicial system’s selective application of the law:
• 27 PDP lawmakers defected to APC, which should automatically mean loss of seats under Section 109 of the Constitution.
• Instead, the Supreme Court allowed them to keep their positions, effectively legalizing political opportunism.
This ruling sets a precedent where lawmakers can defect without consequences, undermining democracy and party loyalty.
A Politicized Judiciary?
Critics argue that the ruling:
• Protects Tinubu and Wike’s interests, ensuring they maintain control over Rivers State.
• Weakens opposition parties, as lawmakers can now switch sides without fear of removal.
• Destroys judicial credibility, making elections meaningless if courts override democratic principles.
This decision raises serious concerns: Is the judiciary still independent, or has it become an extension of executive power?
Economic Fallout: Can Nigeria Afford a Rivers State Shutdown?
Rivers State’s Contribution to Nigeria’s Economy
Rivers State is one of Nigeria’s economic powerhouses, providing:
• Over 40% of Nigeria’s crude oil revenue.
• Billions in federal allocations and oil derivation funds.
• A significant portion of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings.
What Happens if Rivers State Shuts Down?
• Oil pipelines could be sabotaged, cutting Nigeria’s crude exports.
• Nigeria’s economy – already struggling – could collapse further.
• Inflation and forex crisis would worsen, driving prices of goods and services higher.
With federal funds cut off, Rivers State is now relying solely on IGR. If this continues, the state may retaliate by withholding oil revenues, leading to an economic war between Rivers and the Federal Government.
Security Implications: Niger Delta Militants Watching Closely
Rivers State is the heart of the Niger Delta, home to armed militant groups like MEND, Avengers, and Asari Dokubo’s forces.
If the crisis escalates:
• Militants could resume attacks on oil pipelines, crippling Nigeria’s economy.
• Federal military intervention could lead to violent clashes.
• Other South-South states might be drawn into the conflict, leading to regional instability.
The last time a major political crisis happened in the Niger Delta, it took billions in amnesty payments and security deals to restore peace. Can Tinubu afford another armed insurgency?
2027 Elections: Who Wins or Loses from the Rivers Crisis?
Wike’s Grand Plan
Wike’s moves suggest he is positioning himself for Tinubu’s 2027 Vice Presidential slot. He sacrificed PDP in 2023; now, he is willing to sacrifice Rivers State to remain politically relevant.
Tinubu’s Probable 2027 Strategy
Tinubu probably wants Rivers under APC control for his re-election bid. Controlling Rivers ensures massive votes and financial resources for the APC campaign.
Obi and Atiku: The Opposition Factor
• Peter Obi’s growing popularity threatens APC’s hold on the South-South and Southeast.
• Atiku remains a strong force in the North, and a divided APC could benefit him.
• Labour Party and PDP could capitalize on Rivers’ instability, portraying APC as a party of chaos and dictatorship.
If Rivers remains a battleground, it could backfire badly on Tinubu and Wike, giving opposition forces a major advantage in 2027.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Game with National Consequences
The political alliance between Tinubu and Wike has reduced the game to a zero-sum, winner-takes-all equation, leaving the people trapped in a web of travesty and disregard. This selfish, ruthless, and short-sighted political maneuvering ignores the broader stakes of the 2027 Presidential Election, which extend far beyond mere technical exploitation.
From the electorate’s perspective, the coming election will likely raise the bar in ways that will make massive rigging, “hitches and glitches” manipulations, the infamous “go to court” strategy, and judicial validations based on technicalities far more difficult, if not impractical. This shift represents a crucial turning point in Nigeria’s democratic process – one that will test both political actors and institutions in their commitment to genuine electoral integrity.
Hence, the Rivers crisis is not just about Fubara vs. Wike – it is a litmus test for Nigeria’s democracy.
• If Tinubu gets away with this, other governors could be removed arbitrarily.
• If the judiciary continues to serve political interests, democracy is in danger.
• If Rivers State’s economy is strangled, Nigeria’s economic crisis will worsen.
• If militants return, national security will deteriorate.
This crisis must be resolved with constitutional, not authoritarian means. Nigerians must demand accountability, and civil society must reject executive overreach. If not, Nigeria may wake up to find that democracy has been replaced with dictatorship.
The question remains: Will Rivers State be the battleground where Nigeria’s democracy survives – or where it dies?
