Special to USAfrica magazine (Houston) and USAfricaonline.com, the first Africa-owned, US-based newspaper published on the Internet.
Agbedo, Professor of Linguistics, at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, is a contributing analyst to USAfrica multimedia networks.
The following quotes reflect the current ‘hangry’ situation in Nigeria, a country entangled in a vortex, buffeted by a perpetual storm of challenges, and struggling to navigate another tempest on multiple fronts.
“The renewed hope agenda of our party has been floated. Like the Naira exchange rate, Renewed Hope is being exchanged for Renewed Anger…” – *Salihu Lukman*
“Tell your husband that Nigerians are Suffering” – *Emir of Kano to Mrs. Remi Tinubu*
“We are almost on the road to Venezuela” – *PDP Governors Forum*
“Nigeria sitting on a keg of gunpowder.” – *Sultan of Sokoto*
The common denominator of those views is that the suffering of Nigerians is becoming increasingly unprecedented. Perhaps, a simple explanation of the unfolding ugly scenario is evidenced in the hourly fluctuating exchange rate of Naira to the U.S dollar.
As of the time of writing this piece (February 25, 2024), the Naira fell to another all-time low of N1,910 per U.S$1 on the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market. It is against this backdrop that this piece interrogates the complex interplay of shocks, ranging from insecurity through economic turbulence to systemic corruption, and explores the requisite radicalism of shock therapy needed to weather this multifaceted storm.
The ominous clouds of insecurity cast a long shadow over Nigeria. From insurgencies to banditry and acts of criminality, citizens contend with the constant threat of violence and certain uncertainties. Economic turbulence adds another layer to the perpetual storm. Rising inflation, unemployment, and a precarious fiscal landscape create financial waves that impact individuals and communities. The systemic whirlwind of corruption remains a constant force within the storm. These shocks on multiple fronts are not isolated; they form a complex maelstrom where the challenges are interconnected. Insecurity feeds economic instability; corruption exacerbates both, and the cycle continues. The echoes of insecurity reverberate far beyond the immediate threats to life and limb.
The disruption caused by the epidemic of kidnappings, terrorism, and insurgency serves as a catalyst for economic turbulence. Displaced populations, damaged infrastructure, and the diversion of resources to security measures contribute to the economic complexities within the maelstrom. Conversely, economic turbulence fans the flames of insecurity. High unemployment, poverty, and income inequality create fertile ground for social unrest as evident in ‘ebin mpawa’ (hunger) protests. The struggle for resources and opportunities becomes a breeding ground for discontent, exacerbating the security challenges that plague the country. At the heart of the maelstrom lies a pandemic of systemic corruption—an avalanche of scandalous cases that undermine national stability on all fronts. Contract scams of monumental proportions, primitive wealth acquisitions, and misappropriation of funds intended for security, economic development, and public services amplify both insecurity and economic turbulence. Addressing corruption becomes pivotal in untangling the complex web that ensnares the country.
The interplay between these fronts forms a recurrent cycle of challenges. Breaking this cycle necessitates a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes and interrupts the feedback loops perpetuating the maelstrom. The interconnected fronts of insecurity, economic turbulence, and systemic corruption create a complex maelstrom that demands careful analysis of shock therapy as a strategic intervention.
Originally, shock therapy derived from the Electroconvulsive Therapy (ECT) procedure first conducted in 1938 by Italian neuropsychiatrist, Ugo Cerletti used to treat patients, which involves sending an electric current through one’s brain to induce a brief surge of electrical activity (seizure) intended to relieve severe symptoms of such mental health problems as severe depression, mania, and catatonia. In contemporary use, shock therapy represents a radical but necessary prescription for addressing national development challenges. It involves swift and decisive measures to address the root causes of the nation’s challenges, shaking the system out of complacency and laying the groundwork for transformative change. Shock therapy in this context entails a comprehensive overhaul of the security apparatus, addressing underlying grievances, and enhancing intelligence-gathering capabilities to restore peace and stability. Nigeria’s economy teeters on the brink of instability, grappling with high inflation, unemployment, and a burgeoning debt burden. Shock therapy requires bold economic reforms aimed at diversification, investment in critical infrastructure, and fostering an enabling environment for business growth to spur economic recovery and resilience. Corruption remains a cancer eating away at the foundations of Nigerian society, undermining trust in government institutions and impeding progress. Shock therapy involves zero-tolerance policies, robust anti-corruption measures, and the prosecution of corrupt individuals to cleanse the system and restore integrity.
As Nigeria grapples with the urgent need for shock therapy to address its myriad challenges, it’s instructive to look back at historical examples of iconic leaders. Notable among them were Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s first female Prime Minister, Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader of China in the late 20th century, Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of modern Singapore, and Ronald Reagan, the 40th President of the United States who initiated bold and transformative measures for their countries. Despite facing significant opposition, Thatcher’s shock therapy model, nicknamed ‘Thatcherism,’ revitalized the British economy, laying the groundwork for sustained growth and prosperity. Deng’s shock therapy approach propelled China onto the global stage as an economic powerhouse. Lee Kuan Yew’s shock therapy approach laid the foundation for Singapore’s success as a beacon of economic prosperity and stability. Despite facing criticism and opposition, Reagan’s shock therapy approach contributed to a resurgence of economic prosperity, characterized by robust GDP growth and job creation. According to Marian Tupy, rapid economic reforms cast in the mould of ‘shock therapy’ in ex-communist countries, yielded positive outcomes and brought such countries as Poland, Chile, Estonia, Vietnam, and Georgia back to life after communism’. Poland embarked on a bold shock therapy programme in the early 1990s after the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, which involved rapid privatization, liberalization of prices and trade, and macroeconomic stabilization measures. The examples of Thatcher, Deng, Lee, and Reagan as well as ex-communist countries serve as potent reminders of the transformative power of shock therapy when wielded by visionary leaders. Their bold initiatives, though controversial at the time, laid the groundwork for economic revitalization, social progress, and national prosperity. As Nigeria confronts its own challenges, these historical examples offer valuable lessons in leadership, courage, and the imperative of decisive action to chart a path towards a brighter future.
The emergence of President Tinubu and his brand of shock therapy offers renewed hope for Nigeria’s future, as she stands at a crossroads, grappling with a myriad of challenges. It seems tenable to argue that the potential impact of President Tinubu’s radical approach to governance, draws parallels with historical examples of shock therapy initiatives that envision a path towards national rebirth. His administration’s envisioned shock therapy appears to be encapsulated by the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda (RHA),’ which according to him is “defined by our commitment to unleashing our country’s full economic potential, by focusing on job creation, access to capital for small and large businesses, inclusiveness, the rule of law, and the fight against hunger, poverty and corruption.” However, in rolling out this ‘shock therapy,’ President Tinubu did not promise that all would be a jolly good ride on a smooth turf paved with roses. “There is no joy in seeing the people of this nation shoulder burdens that should have been shed years ago. I wish today’s difficulties did not exist. But we must endure if we are to reach the good side of our future…I am attuned to the hardships that have come. I have a heart that feels and eyes that see…Reforms may be painful, but it is what greatness and the future require,” Tinubu said in 1 October 2023. Then, four months later, Mr. President reiterated his firm resolve to go the whole hog of his own brand of shock therapy, while interacting with the Corporate Council on Africa in Africa on Thursday 22 February 2024.
In apparent response to calls from Nigeria Employers; Consultative Association (NECA) and Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) for a review of the economic reforms that have unleashed unprecedented hardship across Nigeria, President Tinubu insisted that there was no going back until his vision for Nigeria was achieved. “We are right in the middle of a challenging stage of our reforms. We have headwinds, no doubt, but we are not going back…I have a can-do attitude that must be translated into a must-do attitude. We have a good team, and we must remain focused to get the goal accomplished,” President Tinubu said.
Beautiful and visionary as the Renewed Hope Agenda may sound on paper, its implementation is another ball game altogether. This perhaps explains the advice of the immediate-past National Vice Chairman, Northwest, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Salihu Mohammed Lukman that the recent protests in Minna and Kano against the rising cost of living as a wake-up call to the Federal government, lamenting that President Bola Tinubu’s renewed hope agenda was fast turning into renewed anger. The APC stalwart raised concerns about ‘the management of policy process’ as it related to petroleum subsidy removal and floating of the exchange rate of the Naira, resulting to a downward slide of the Naira, high inflationary trend, and attendant high cost of living. “Once government is unable to settle these issues, it is predictable that the cost of living will continue to go up.
Once prices of necessities are beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians, citizens will respond in the streets to compel our leaders to do the needful. This is the value of democracy”, he stated. Of course, President Tinubu’s RHA was conceived as a bold vision for Nigeria’s future, with the main focus on ‘unleashing Nigeria’s full economic potential’ and bubbling with a heightened sense of optimism that foresees the possibility of building ‘a trillion-dollar economy within the next decade’. However, beneath its veneer of optimism lie significant pitfalls and challenges, the complexities and obstacles that have the potential to hinder its effectiveness as a form of shock therapy. One of the primary pitfalls of President Tinubu’s RHA is its lack of specificity and detail. While the overarching vision is ambitious, the agenda lacks clear, actionable strategies and implementation plans for achieving its goals. Without detailed roadmaps for reform, the agenda risks falling short of its intended outcomes.
President Tinubu’s ascent to power has tended to exacerbate political polarization and division within Nigeria. The RHA must navigate these deep-seated divisions to garner broad-based support and consensus. Failure to bridge political divides may impede progress and undermine the effectiveness of shock therapy measures. Also, shock therapy faces significant scrutiny in light of allegations of corruption and governance failures. Addressing systemic issues of corruption and mismanagement is paramount for restoring public trust and credibility. Failure to address these challenges may undermine the legitimacy of President Tinubu’s administration and erode confidence in the agenda’s ability to deliver meaningful change. The RHA must confront entrenched economic disparities and social inequities that undermine progress and stability. Without targeted interventions to address poverty, unemployment, and inequality, the agenda risks perpetuating existing social divisions and exacerbating tensions within society. Another critical pitfall of President Tinubu’s RHA is the perceived lack of stakeholder consultation and engagement. Inclusive governance processes are essential for building consensus, fostering ownership, and ensuring the sustainability of reforms. The reluctance of such critical stakeholders as NECA and MAN to be on the same page with Mr. President’s RHA is quite instructive in this regard. Failure to consult with key stakeholders may lead to resistance, opposition, and ultimately, the failure of RHA as a shock therapy initiative. Even with the best intentions, the successful implementation of the Agenda is contingent upon overcoming significant implementation challenges and capacity constraints. Building institutional capacity, overcoming bureaucratic inertia, and mobilizing resources are essential for translating vision into action.
As Nigeria embarks on the implementation of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, it must navigate the pitfalls and challenges that lie ahead with caution and foresight. Addressing issues of specificity, political polarization, corruption, economic disparities, stakeholder engagement, and implementation capacity will be critical for realizing the transformative potential of shock therapy and delivering meaningful change for the Nigerian people. Only through concerted efforts to address these challenges can President Tinubu’s agenda truly fulfill its promise of renewed hope and prosperity for all Nigerians. Leveraging the transformative potential of RHA as a shock therapy is at the heart of a governance structure that recognizes the interdependencies within insecurity, economic turbulence, and systemic corruption in navigating the complex maelstrom. Proactive governance becomes the navigational compass in this storm. President Tinubu and his team must steer the ship with foresight, implement policies that address the root causes of insecurity and economic challenges, and uphold transparency and accountability to calm the tempest within the corridors and outside the confines of power. A holistic vision is essential to chart a course through the intricacies of the storm. In this regard, shock therapy may prove the much-needed magic wand to steer the floundering state ship verging precariously on the precipice away and reroute it to an even keel. Shock therapy implies the pressing necessity for bold, decisive action to confront Nigeria’s most pressing issues and propel her towards a path of stability and prosperity.
In the perpetual storm that envelops Nigeria, finding calm in the midst of chaos requires a multi-faceted approach. Amidst the chaos of the maelstrom, resilience emerges as the anchor that prevents the country from being swept away. Individual and collective resilience become paramount in withstanding the shocks, adapting to changing circumstances, and contributing to the rebuilding process. As the storm affects communities, solidarity becomes the shelter against its fury. Public awareness plays a crucial role in understanding the interdependencies within the maelstrom. An informed citizenry is better equipped to push advocacy for comprehensive solutions, hold leaders accountable, and actively participate in initiatives that contribute to breaking the cycle of challenges. Community support networks, local initiatives, and mutual aid contribute to weathering the collective impact. Strengthening the social fabric empowers individuals to stand resilient amidst challenges. Innovation and adaptation serve as the sails that propel the country forward. Embracing technological advancements, fostering a culture of innovation, and adapting to global changes are essential in navigating the perpetual storm and steering Nigeria toward a more stable and prosperous future.
Most importantly, the government must show a strong political will to combat the monster called corruption. Perhaps, it is only in this sense that a Tinubu administration intent on allowing the RHA to run its full course as shock therapy is certain to elicit the support and goodwill of Nigerians. As a corollary, the ‘keg of gunpower’ alarm sounded by the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar lll and the need to find jobs for our idle teeming youths must be addressed timeously and nip in the bud the frightful prospects of ‘looking for their trouble’ with a capital ‘T’. Interestingly though, President Tinubu has shown courage, grit, and tough skin quite characteristic of a true leader during troubling moments such as Nigeria’s current travails by maintaining his hard position that ‘the hard way remains the only way’. This is implicit in his admonition to Nigerians to endure the hardships. If Nigerians must endure current hardship to have a good future, according to President Tinubu, it is quite understandable within the context of a shock therapy as envisioned by the RHA. Nonetheless, the alleged ‘unverified report’ of dolling out N30billion Naira as palliatives to all the 36 State Governors by Senate President, Senator Akpabio and swift denials of same by the Oyo Sate Governor, Seyi Makinde on behalf of his fellow governors hardly presents a good optics for President Tinubu’s call for Nigerians to endure current hardships. The conflicting accounts regarding the distribution of palliatives raise questions about transparency and accountability in governance.
Also, the apparent correlation between increased federal allocations to the three tiers of government and the depreciation of the Naira against the dollar as well as a corresponding increase in economic hardships underscores a perplexing paradox of Nigeria’s situation. The alleged diversion of increased monthly federal allocations to unofficial Bureau de Change (BDCs) by direct beneficiaries and its generic effects lie at the heart of this troubling economic paradox. This diversion contributes significantly to currency depreciation as it increases the demand for foreign currency. Currency depreciation results in higher prices for imported goods, diminishing the purchasing power of consumers, which in turn intensifies the economic hardships faced by the Nigerian populace.
The foregoing tends to explain the paradoxical relationship between increased federal allocations, currency depreciation, and economic hardships. Ultimately, the unfolding scenario requires shock therapy in the form of comprehensive reform and responsible economic management to redress substantially and decidedly. It is only in this manner that ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’, rather than being exchanged for ‘renewed anger’ as claimed by Salihu Lukman, would suffice as a well-thought-out shock therapy, a strategic socioeconomic and political intervention that seeks to recalibrate the wheel of national development drive. Perhaps then, Nigeria reasonably hopes to navigate the current complex maelstrom successfully and emerge stronger in the foreseeable future.
