(Reuters) – Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Felix Tshisekedi has long dismissed the possibility of dialogue with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who continue to advance through eastern Congo. However, a series of military setbacks and waning regional support have forced him to reconsider.
This week, Angola announced that representatives from both the Congolese government and M23 would hold direct talks in Luanda on March 18. The announcement surprised many, as the rebels continue to seize territory rich in valuable minerals such as coltan and tantalum.
While the Congolese government has not publicly confirmed its participation, three government sources told Reuters that Tshisekedi is seriously considering sending a delegation.
With the Congolese army and its allies struggling to halt the rebel advance, regional powers increasingly see dialogue as the only viable path forward.
“I haven’t talked to a single African country that says Kinshasa shouldn’t talk to M23,” a senior diplomat stated. “The line of everyone is, ‘How do you stop the fighting if you don’t engage with them?'”
Government Weighs Participation
One source on Friday confirmed that government participation in the Luanda talks was certain, although it remained unclear who would represent Kinshasa. Other sources indicated that discussions were ongoing and a final decision might not be reached until next week.
M23, for its part, has demanded a clear commitment from Tshisekedi to engage in negotiations. Both sides have also raised questions about the framework of the talks and how they align with decisions made by regional bodies attempting to resolve the conflict.
Meanwhile, foreign and defense ministers from Southern and East Africa are set to meet in Harare on Monday to discuss efforts to halt hostilities and initiate political dialogue.
Shifting Tactics Amid Military Failures
According to UN experts, M23 is supported by thousands of Rwandan troops, whose superior weaponry has enabled the rebels to capture two major cities in eastern Congo since late January, along with several smaller localities.
Rwanda, however, denies arming or deploying troops to support M23, instead claiming its forces act in self-defense against the Congolese army and militias hostile to Kigali.
Engaging in talks with M23 would mark a significant reversal for Tshisekedi, who has repeatedly vowed never to negotiate with the group. However, Congolese political analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liège in Belgium stated that such a move would acknowledge that the military approach has “failed.”
“Kinshasa’s position on dialogue is understandable because it finds itself stuck, fearing that the (rebel alliance) could reach a critical threshold,” Kabamba explained.
Regional Concerns and Strategic Shifts
Angola’s involvement in brokering talks signals broader regional concerns about the potential escalation of the conflict. Analysts suggest Angola is keen to prevent a large-scale war similar to those that devastated the region in the 1990s and early 2000s.
“Angola has clearly decided that it is necessary to intervene to prevent the advance of the M23 towards the west of the DRC,” said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.
Doubts over Tshisekedi’s ability to turn the tide militarily were also evident this week when Southern African leaders approved the “phased withdrawal” of the Southern African Development Community’s military deployment (SAMIDRC), which had been tasked with combating rebels.
Although the SAMIDRC force was relatively weak in terms of direct combat, its presence symbolized regional support for Congo. Its withdrawal, analysts warn, represents a “significant blow” to Kinshasa’s position.
